1961—2014年贵州省干湿状况时空变化及影响因素分析  

Spatial-temporal variation and influencing factors of dry and wet condition in Guizhou Province between 1961 and 2014

作　　者：韩会庆 张朝琼[2] 王轶 程植 文明 王鹏 刘利斌 Han Huiqing;Zhang Chaoqiong;Wang Yi;Cheng Zhi;WenMing;Wang Peng;Liu Libing(College of Architecture and Urban Planning, GuizhouInstitute of Technology, Guiyang 550003,China;College ofGeography and Environmental Sciences, Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院,贵州贵阳550003 [2]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期106-112,共7页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2017]217);贵州理工学院学术新苗培养及探索创新项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5789-23);贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动项目(气候变化对贵州省淡水生态系统服务的影响);自然资源部/广西壮族自治区岩溶动力学重点实验室开放课题

摘　　要：[目的]了解贵州省干湿状况变化规律,为农业生产及气象灾害风险预警提供科学依据。[方法]基于贵州省84个气象站点逐日观测数据,利用湿润指数,结合气候变化倾向率、Kring插值法、小波分析和相关分析法分析了1961—2014年贵州省干湿状况时空变化特征,并探究了其变化的影响因素。[结果]54a间贵州省全年、湿季、春季和秋季气候趋于干旱化,干季、夏季和冬季气候趋于湿润化。全年、干湿季,四季的湿润指数变化倾向率空间格局存在一定差异。全年、干湿季、四季存在2~4个不同时间尺度周期振荡,28a是全年、湿季、春季、夏季和秋季湿润指数变化的主要作用周期,17a是干季和冬季主要作用周期。降水量、平均相对湿度是影响贵州省湿润指数变化的主要因素,而平均风速、平均气温、平均水气压、日照时数对湿润指数变化影响较小。[结论]贵州省全年湿润指数下降将增加全省干旱风险,湿季和春季的湿润指数的下降不利于农作物的生长和成熟,夏季湿润指数的上升将增加农作物的洪涝风险。[Objectives] The purpose of the paper was to understand characteristics of dry-wet condition variation in Guizhou Province and to provide scientific basis for agricultural production and the meteorological disaster risk warning.[Methods] The study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditionfrom 1961 to 2014 by the methods of humid index, inclination rate of climate change, Kringinterpolation, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis based on the daily observation data collected by 84 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province, and explored the potential influencing factors on dry-wet condition alteration.[ Results] The climate tended to be drierduring a whole year, wet season, spring, and autumn, while the climatetended to be humid duringdry season, summer, and winter over past 54 years. There were prominent differences in spatial pattern of the change tendency of humid index between the annual, dry season, wet season and four seasons. Two to four different time scales periodic oscillation were noticed in the annual, dry season, wet season and four seasons. The main action cycle in annual, wet season, spring, summer and autumn was 28 years, while it was 17 years in dry season and winter. Precipitation and average relative humidity were determined as the main factors which influenced the variation of humid index in Guizhou Province, while the average wind speed, average temperature, average vapor pressure and sunshine duration demonstrated a relative small effect on humid index.[Conclusion]The decrease of annual humid index in Guizhou Province increase the drought risk in this region. The decrease of humid index in wet season and spring produce negative impact on the growth and maturity of crops, while the increase of humid index in summer.

关 键 词：干湿状况 时空变化 小波分析 影响因素 贵州省 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]