农地经营权抵押贷款试点政策效果仿真模拟研究——以宁夏平罗县658份农户数据为例  

Simulation Research on the Effect of the Pilot Policy of Farmland Management Rights Mortgage: Based on 658 Rural Households from Pingluo County in Ningxia

作　　者：魏立乾 罗剑朝[1,2] WEI Liqian;LUO Jianchao(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Shaanxi RuralFinance Research Center,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]陕西省农村金融研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2019年第5期69-77,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：教育部2011年度“长江学者和创新团队发展计划”创新团队项目(IRT1176);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873100,71573210);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科重大培育项目(2452019155)

摘　　要：研究目的:构建农地经营权抵押贷款试点政策效果仿真模型,预测政策效果未来走势并寻找优化途径。研究方法:系统动力学、G1法、熵值法。研究结果:(1)家庭收入是政策效果最显著的正向影响因素,贷款可得性是政策效果最有效的正向影响因素;(2)贷款期限、贷款获批比例、农户信用等级均为政策效果的主要影响因素,其中,农户信用等级是政策效果的关键因素;(3)贷款利率是政策效果的较为敏感影响因素。中小型农户贷款响应对利率的提高有较强的敏感反应,而对利率降低敏感度不高。研究结论:提高贷款可得性、适度延长贷款期限、提升农户信用等级是优化农地经营权抵押贷款政策效果的有效途径。The purpose of this study is to construct a simulation model for the effect of pilot policy for farmland management rights mortgage,to predict the future trend of policy effects and to find ways for optimization.The methods used include system dynamics,G1 method and entropy method.The results show that: 1)household income is the most significant positive influence factor of policy effect,while loan availability is the most effective positive influence factor of policy effect;2)the loan period,the proportion of loans approved and the credit rating of farmers are the main influence factors to improve the policy effect,among which the credit rating of farmers is the key factor of policy effect;3)the loan interest rate is a more sensitive factor of policy effect.The loan response of small and medium-sized farmers has a strong sensitivity to the increase of interest rates,but they have a low sensitivity to interest rate reduction.In conclusion, improving the availability of loans,moderately extending the loan period and upgrading the credit rating of farmers are effective ways to optimize the effect of the farmland management rights mortgage policy.

关 键 词：土地经济 政策效果模拟 系统动力学 农地经营权抵押贷款 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济]