双边政治关系、东道国制度质量与中国对外直接投资的区位选择——基于2005～2017年中国企业对外直接投资的定量研究  

Bilateral Political Relations,Quality of Host Country Institutions and Location Choice for China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment:A Quantitative Analysis of Chinese OFDI from 2005-2017

作　　者：王金波[1] Wang Jinbo

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2019年第3期4-28,157,共26页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“借助‘一带一路’构建中国的全球环境治理战略研究”(项目编号:17CGJ005);广东国际战略研究院暨教育部战略基地2017年招标课题“东亚经济合作的发展态势与中国的策略选择”(项目编号:17ZDA15)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：双边政治关系和东道国制度质量是决定一国对外直接投资区位选择和流向的重要因素。基于2005~2017年中国企业对外直接投资的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对双边政治关系、东道国制度质量及其交互效应对中国对外直接投资区位选择的影响进行了实证考察。研究结果表明:其一,东道国的制度质量与中国赴该国投资的可能性呈显著的正相关关系;在不同制度维度中,东道国的政治稳定性、政府效率、监管质量、法治水平和腐败控制能力对中国对外直接投资的区位选择有着正向作用,但东道国的民主程度作为一种政治规则,其与中国对该国的直接投资并不存在严格的一一对应关系。其二,双边政治关系及其对东道国制度环境的优化互补效应也会显著影响中国对外直接投资的区位选择,并呈现一定的制度偏向性。其三,经济因素依然是决定中国对外直接投资的基础性因素,中国对外直接投资总体上也倾向于那些经济规模大、要素成本低、自然资源或战略资源充裕的国家或地区,中国对外直接投资企业同样也呈现出与国际跨国企业相近的总体行为模式,其符合国际资本移动的理论预期。其四,通过对中国在“一带一路”相关国家投资的分析,文章还发现中国在“一带一路”相关国家的直接投资呈现一定的“制度风险偏好”特征,而良好的双边政治关系及其对东道国制度环境的优化互补效应则对中国在“一带一路”相关国家的直接投资有着正向的激励和促进作用。这一结论也从侧面反映了经济外交在推动中国对外直接投资和“一带一路”建设中的合理性、必要性和有效性。This article conducts quantitative research of the outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies from 2005 to 2017,and by applying a negative binomial regression model featuring panel data,it explores the effects that quality of host state institutions,bilateral political relations and dynamics between these two variables have on location choice for Chinese outward foreign direct investment. The results illustrate the following:First,that there is a clear and direct positive relationship between quality of a host country ’ s institutions and the probability that China will invest in that country.Second,bilateral political relations and the effect that they have with respect to improving the environment for investment in host states clearly influences location choice for Chinese outward FDI,generating an institutional bias for Chinese investments.Thirdly,economic factors are fundamental in determining China ’ s outward foreign direct investment decisions,with Chinese OFDI generally showing preference for states or regions with large economies,low operating costs,and with abundant natural or strategic resources.Lastly,an analysis of Chinese investment in Belt and Road countries finds that while institutional risk is important for Chinese investment in BRI countries,that good bilateral political relations and the impact that this has on improving the investment environment plays a direct and positive role in encouraging and promoting Chinese investment.

关 键 词：双边政治关系 制度质量 对外直接投资 区位选择 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学] F125[政治法律—外交学] F279.2[经济管理—世界经济]