美国在南海问题上的对华政策转向——基于强制外交与威慑理论的考察  

Changes in America’s Policy towards China in the South China Seas:Considerations based on Coercive Diplomacy and Deterrence Theory

作　　者：陈慈航[1] Chen Cihang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院、国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心

出　　处：《当代亚太》2019年第3期95-128,159-160,共35页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：武汉大学人文社会科学自主科研青年项目“南海非传统安全多边合作机制构建:可行性、现实困难与解决路径”(项目编号:2017QN001)的阶段性成果;“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”的资助

摘　　要：“亚太再平衡”战略实施以来,美国在南海问题上的对华政策经历了从强制外交到威慑的转向,奥巴马执政初期和中期通过强制外交政策逼迫中国“澄清”南海主张及其法理依据,要求中国停止在南海的维权行动,并推动中国与东盟国家加快“南海行为准则”的制定进程。从奥巴马执政后期开始,美国在南海问题上对华政策逐步由注重强制外交转向更具被动防御性的威慑,以慑止中国主导南海的进一步行动为主要目标。美国的政策转向受到中美南海战略动机不对称因素的深刻影响,也与美国实施强制外交的策略性失误密切相关。基于强制外交转向威慑政策的路径分析可以大体判断,延续在南海对华威慑政策是特朗普政府最为现实的选择,通过对其政策目标的重设和威慑强度的调整,美国将在相当程度上为其中长期政策走势奠定基调。Since the introduction of the “Asia Pacific Re-balancing” strategy,the U.S.policy towards China with respect to the South China Seas has shifted from coercive diplomacy to deterrence.From the outset of the Obama Administration until his midterm as President,the U.S.employed coercive diplomacy to press China to “clarify” its claims to the South China Seas,as well as the legal basis for these claims,demanding that China discontinue actions to assert its rights in South China Seas,further pushing China to speed up progress in working with ASEAN to determine the South China Sea Code of Conduct.Towards the end of the Obama Administration,the U.S.shifted in its approach away from coercive diplomacy towards a more passive form of preventative deterrence.The main objective of this new approach was to deter China from taking further actions in the South China Sea.The change in U.S.policy was influenced deeply by the asymmetric strategic motivations of the U.S.and China respectively vis-à-vis the South China Seas,and further by strategic miscalculations made by the U.S.in carrying out its coercive diplomacy.By carefully analyzing the shift from coercive diplomacy to a deterrence policy,we can generally conclude that continuing the deterrence policy was the most practical option for the Trump Administration.By resetting its policy objectives and adjusting the level of its deterrence,the U.S.has set the tone for the direction of its policy over the medium to long term.

关 键 词：强制外交 威慑 南海问题 对华政策 动机不对称 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]