基于系统动力学的售电渠道评价管理研究  

Research of electricity selling channels’ evaluation and management based on system dynamics

作　　者：刘桢 林璐 蒋旭 李岳东 石会燕 周晖[1] LIU Zhen;LIN Lu;JIANG Xu;LI Yuedong;SHI Huiyan;ZHOU Hui(School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;Customer Service Center, State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100075, China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044 [2]国网北京市电力公司客服中心,北京100075)摘

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2019年第11期165-172,共8页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“先进轨道交通”重点专项(2017YFB1201000)“轨道交通新型供电制式车辆与车载储能技术”;国网北京市电力公司科技项目(52022417000M)“客户购电服务全过程监控及电力营销大数据分析研究”~~

摘　　要：互联网环境下售电方式的多样化,对售电渠道的建设与管理提出了新的要求。为提高售电渠道整体服务水平,结合某地区几年来海量售电大数据,对售电渠道的运行和管理过程进行具体分析。借鉴平衡计分卡的思路,构建了反映渠道服务能力、服务效益、服务质量、服务潜力的评价指标体系。在分析各指标间因果关系的基础上,构建了系统动力学评价分析模型。依据某地区2015年至2017年全样本居民购电大数据以及服务监测数据,对各售电渠道进行评价。运用灵敏度分析找出关键指标并进行售电渠道服务水平提升模拟,对售电渠道服务水平的提高提出针对性建议。The diversification of electricity selling way in the internet environment has put forward new requirements for the construction and management of electricity selling channels. In order to improve overall service level of electricity selling channels, massive scale of the selling big data in a certain area for several years are combined to analyze operation and management process of electricity selling channels concretely. Firstly, referring to the thought of balanced scorecard, an evaluation indicator system reflecting service ability, efficiency, quality as well as potential is constructed. Furthermore, on the basis of indicators causality analysis, a system dynamics evaluation and analysis model is also constructed. Finally, according to the whole sample data of electricity selling and service monitoring data in the area from 2015 to 2017, this paper evaluates the electricity selling channels and uses sensitivity analysis to find the key indicators to simulate the advancement of service level of electricity selling. The suggestions on improvement of service level of electricity selling channels are pointed out.

关 键 词：大数据 售电渠道 指标体系 综合评价 系统动力学 R语言 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F274