基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究  

Correction Technology of Regional Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Partial Least Square Regression

作　　者：杨程 姜瑜君 余贞寿 姜文东[2] 康丽莉 王丽吉 YANG Cheng;JIANG Yujun;YU Zhenshou;JIANG Wendong;KANG Lili;WANG Liji(Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Science,Hangzhou 310008;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310007;Zhejiang Meteorological Network Information Center,Hangzhou 310008)

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310008 [2]国网浙江省电力公司,杭州310007 [3]浙江省气象网络信息中心,杭州310008

出　　处：《气象》2019年第5期676-684,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106035);浙江省气象局科技项目(2017ZD16和2018YB10);国家电网公司科技项目“临海重要输电通道灾害预警及防灾关键技术研究”和“电网气象监测数据在输电线路覆冰和台风灾害预警中的应用研究”共同资助

摘　　要：利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。Based on the partial least square regression,the near-surface wind speed predicted by Zhejiang WRF ADAS Real Time Modeling System in winters of 2013-2016 is corrected and evaluated.The forecast product is used as the independent variable while the corresponding observational data of the automatic weather stations are used as the dependent variable.At most of the 956 stations,the correction of wind speed has been improved.Through quantitative analysis,we find that the improvement effect is best for the stations in the western region of Zhejiang,up to 91.7%.The improved stations in the central part account for 86.5%.The improvement of the stations in the eastern coastal region is slightly worse,with 67%obviously improved stations.The improvement percentage of wind speed correction,indicates the station performance of each city is good.Except for Zhoushan(49.9%),the rate of wind speed improvement is more than 50%in other cities.Based on the analysis of the gale process in the northeastern coast Zhejiang on 20 January 2017,the corrected wind speed is closer to the observation,especially at the nearshore stations.

关 键 词：风速 订正 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]