基于逆推法和德尔菲法的地质灾害气象服务效益评估  

Benefit Assessment of Geological Hazard Meteorological Services Based on Inverse Algorithm and Evaluation Method of Delphi

作　　者：狄靖月 徐辉 许凤雯 杨寅 包红军 张国平[2] DI Jingyue;XU Hui;XU Fengwen;YANG Yin;BAO Hongjun;ZHANG Guoping(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081;CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2019年第5期705-712,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702、2017YFC1502501);国家自然科学基金项目(51509043、41775111和41871020)共同资助

摘　　要：地质灾害气象服务发挥越来越重要的作用,既有可量化的经济效益,也有不可忽视难以量化的、潜在的社会效益和生态效益。根据历年地质灾害调查与分析数据,运用逆推法结合德尔菲法,建立地质灾害气象服务效益评估模型,并根据已有研究及防汛经验对模型的系数进行量化。模型以地质灾害气象预报评分和灾害直接经济损失为输入,以防灾减灾效益值、防灾减灾效益百分率、气象服务直接经济效益、气象服务直接经济效益百分率为输出,可同时对各区域、各时间段的地质灾害过程进行气象服务效益分段评估,也可评估年度地质灾害气象服务效益。该模型在2017年地质灾害气象效益评估中表现良好,有一定指导意义。Serious harm was caused by geological disasters induced by precipitation,and people’s lives and property were threatened.The assessing of meteorological services and disaster mitigation effect in geological disaster is needed.Based on the disaster and direct economic losses and the weather forecast data from 2009 to 2016,the relationship between the disaster losses and meteorological service benefits is analyzed in the paper.By the inverse algorithm and the Delphi method,the assessing model is established in this paper.The parameterization entering into the model is successful.The input variables are accuracy as geological disaster weather forecast and the direct economic losses,the output are disaster prevention and mitigation benefit value and meteorological service direct economic benefits.The model was adopted to describe the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation and meteorological service’s level and performed well in geological hazard meteorological benefit assessment in 2017.

关 键 词：地质灾害 气象服务 经济效益 效益评估 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]