全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望  

A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change

作　　者：方佳毅 史培军[2,3,4,5] FANG Jiayi;SHI Peijun(Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Ministry of Education,School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Geographical Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [5]青海师范大学地理科学学院,西宁810016

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2019年第5期625-636,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602404,2017YFE0100700);上海市科研计划项目(19YF1413700);博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M651429)~~

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。The sea level rise under global climate change and coastal floods caused by extreme sea levels due to the high tide levels and storm surges have huge impacts on coastal society, economy, and natural environment. It has drawn great attention from global scientific researchers. This study examines the definitions and elements of coastal flooding in the general and narrow senses, and mainly focuses on the components of coastal flooding in the narrow sense. Based on the natural disaster system theory, the review systematically summarizes the progress of coastal flood research in China, then discusses existing problems in present studies and future research directions with regard to this issue. It is proposed that future studies need to strengthen research on adapting to climate change in coastal areas, including studies on the risk of multi-hazards and uncertainties of hazard impacts under climate change, risk assessment of key exposure(critical infrastructure) in coastal hotspots, and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures in coastal areas. Efforts to improve the resilience of coastal areas under climate change should be given more attention. The research community also should establish the mechanism of data sharing among disciplines to meet the needs of future risk assessments, so that coastal issues can be more comprehensively, systematically, and dynamically studied.

关 键 词：海岸洪水 全球气候变化 风暴潮灾害 风险评估 影响 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]