房地产价格对居民消费率影响研究——基于VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析  

Research on the Influence of Real Estate Price on Household Consumption Rate——Based on VAR model and analysis of impulse response function

作　　者：熊平[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江师范学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2019年第2期59-62,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：与中国改革开放同步,住房改革也接近40年,作为中国奇迹的重要内容,中国住房和房地产发展功不可没。房地产价格过快增长和居民消费率偏低的状况对我国经济稳定发展产生一定的影响。本文采用1987-2017年时间序列数据,通过协整模型和脉冲响应函数等工具对房地产价格与居民消费率的关系进行深入剖析。得出如下结论:房地产价格对我国居民消费率的影响为总体的抑制,且前期较为强烈,之后趋于平缓,可支配收入占GDP比重影响比重最大。最后文章给出针对性的建议,以期稳定目前房地产价格,提高居民消费率。In parallel with China’s reform and opening up, housing reform is also close to 40 years. As an important part of the Chinese miracle, China’s housing and real estate development has contributed. The excessive growth of real estate prices and the low consumption rate of residents have a certain impact on the stable development of China’s economy. In this paper, the time series data from1987 to 2017 are used to analyze the relationship between real estate price and household consumption rate through tools such as cointegration model and impulse response function. It is concluded that the impact of real estate prices on China’s household consumption rate is generally suppressed, and the previous period is relatively strong, and then tends to be flat. The disposable income accounts for the largest proportion of GDP. The final article gives targeted recommendations to stabilize current real estate prices and increase household consumption rates.

关 键 词：房地产价格 居民消费率 居民可支配收入 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1