人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染交互影响关系——基于面板协整和PECM模型的分析  

Interaction among Population Agglomeration, Economic Agglomeration, and Environmental Pollution:An PECM Model Analysis

作　　者：刘永旺 马晓钰[1] 杨瑞瑞 Liu Yongwang;Ma Xiaoyu;Yang Ruirui(School of Economics and Management Xinjiang University)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2019年第3期90-101,共12页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“新疆生育水平变动下的人口效应分析及后计划生育时代人口政策实施效果预判”(71663050);新疆普通高校人文社科研究基地重点项目“新疆生育水平变动下人口效应分析”(XJEDU010116B01);新疆大学经济与管理学院丝路基金项目“基于人才安全屋模型我国人才逆流研究”(JGSL18014)资助

摘　　要：协调好人口、经济与环境的发展关系,必须厘清人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染的因果关系。文章基于我国2007~2016年省级数据,运用面板数据单位根检验、面板协整检验以及面板误差修正模型(PECM)采用动态广义最小二乘法(DGLS)估计,对三者之间的长期因果关系和短期因果关系进行了研究。结果表明,在短期关系中,人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染三者之间呈现单向环形因果关系;在长期关系中,人口集聚、经济集聚与环境污染呈现双向环形因果关系。基于长期和短期因果关系的不同,我国在制定长期规划和短期规划时应抓住侧重点,以期实现区域经济、人口城镇化、环境保护之间的协调发展。In order to coordinate development of population, economy, and environment, it is necessary to clarify the causal relationships among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration and environmental pollution. Based on the provincial data from 2007 to 2016, this paper uses the panel data unit root test, the panel cointegration test, and the panel error correction model(PECM) to generate the dynamic generalized least square(DGLS) estimation in order to explore the long-term and short-term causality among the three variables. The results show that for the short-term relationship, there is a one-way circular causal relationship among population agglomeration, economic agglomeration, and environmental pollution, while for the long-term relationship, these three variables demonstrate a double-circular causality. Based on the difference between the long-term and short-term causality, China should pay more attention to the development of regional economy, population urbanization, and environmental protection in order to realize the coordinated development of these three elements.

关 键 词：人口集聚 经济集聚 环境污染 面板误差修正模型 环形因果关系 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]