差别化信贷政策的房价“稳定器”效果研究  

Can Differentiated Credit Policies Stabilize Housing Prices?

作　　者：徐小华[1] 徐志豪 胡先伟 Xu Xiaohua;Xu Zhihao;Hu Xianwei

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学、之江学院商学院,310023 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院 [3]诚邦生态环境股份有限公司

出　　处：《南方经济》2019年第5期17-36,共20页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金(16BJY165)的资助

摘　　要：在Iacoviello(2005)模型基础上,文章根据不同的住房需求,将借贷家庭进一步划分为刚需型家庭与投机型家庭,构建了包含异质性借贷家庭与信贷摩擦的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,以此探讨差别化信贷政策对房价波动的影响。研究发现:①从长期均衡看,投机购房首付比例的提高可以显著拉低房价并且对实体经济的负面影响很小;刚需购房首付比例的降低有利于长期经济向好,但同时也要注意提防首付比例过低引致的系统性风险。②从短期波动看,"抑制投机需求的同时支持自住需求"的差别化信贷政策能有效地抑制房价波动与住房投机需求的波动。③在调控政策方面,加息政策对投机型家庭消费和购房需求的抑制时期要长于刚需型家庭;限贷等打压房价的调控政策,会使产出、资本在短期内下降,但通过改善信贷结构会使产出在长期实现增长。因此,文章建议实施差别化信贷政策时要与其他政策有效搭配,统筹兼顾长、短期效应,以谋求房地产市场健康稳定发展。Based on the Iacoviello( 2005) model,this paper further divides the impatient households into rigid-demanding households and speculative households according to different housing needs,and constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium( DSGE) model including heterogeneous housing demand and credit friction,in order to explore the impact of differentiated credit policies on housing price volatility. The study found that:①From the perspective of long-term equilibrium,the increase in the down-payment ratio of speculative housing purchases can significantly lower housing prices and has little negative impact on the real economy;the reduction in the down-payment ratio of rigid-demanding housing purchases is conducive to long-term economic improvement,but attention should also be paid to the systemic risks caused by the low down-payment ratio.② From the perspective of short-term fluctuations,the differential credit policies,which suppress speculative demand while support self-living demand,can effectively curb the volatility of house prices and demand for housing speculation.③In addition,interest rate hike has a more prolonged negative effect on consumption and housing demand of speculative households than that of rigid-demanding households;the regulatory policies such as loan limits,which may suppress housing prices,will cause a decline in output and capital in the short term,but can lead to prosperity in the long run by optimizing credit structure. Therefore,it is suggested that the implementation of differentiated credit policies should be effectively matched with other policies to integrate both long-term effects and short-term effects in order to seek the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

关 键 词：异质性住房需求 信贷摩擦 经济周期 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]