南海夏季风对台风“启德”极端降水影响的数值模拟  

Numerical simulation on the influence of South China Sea summer monsoon on the extreme precipitation caused by typhoon “Kai-tak”

作　　者：夏侯杰 朱伟军[2] 任福民[3] 梁佳[4] 王彬雁 XIA Houjie;ZHU Weijun;REN Fumin;LIANG Jia;WANG Binyan(Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanchang 330046,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education /Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change /Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Pacific Typhoon Research Center,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气象台,南昌330046 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [4]南京信息工程大学太平洋台风研究中心,南京210044 [5]四川省气象台,成都610072)0x09

出　　处：《气象科学》2019年第3期295-303,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41375056;41575070;41075070);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306028);江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)

摘　　要：本文为研究台风“启德”极端降水的成因,模拟了南海夏季风减弱后台风“启德”的路径、强度、雨带位置、降水强度等。结果表明,夏季风削弱后,南海地区的西南季风受到抑制,台风强度减弱,台风范围内降水强度总体减弱,台风雨带偏南,因此南海夏季风强度减弱不利于极端降水的产生。降水模拟过程中发现,降水强度的减弱在整个模拟试验时间周期内,表现为非峰值强度减弱明显,而峰值强度不明显减弱。进一步分析了台风降水的逐小时演变特征和台风路径特征。结果表明,控制试验与敏感性试验模拟台风登陆在时间上存在时间差,与台风降水的逐小时变化峰值出现的时间差基本对应。这说明可能台风登陆过程的其他复杂因素导致夏季风减弱后台风登陆降水不表现出明显减弱。而非登陆过程,减弱夏季风对台风降水有减幅作用。Typhoon“Kai-Tak”(2012)had caused extreme precipitation along coastal areas in Guangdong and Guangxi when the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon reached its strongest stage.In order to figure out the causes of extreme precipitation associated with typhoon“Kai-Tak”,we simulated the track,intensity,rain belt position,and precipitation intensity of typhoon“Kai-Tak”after the summer monsoon intensity reduced.Results showed that southwest monsoon had been weakened in the South China Sea;typhoon intensity was weakened;typhoon precipitation was reduced among the typhoon range as a whole;and typhoon rain band moved southward.Thus,the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon was not in favor of producing extreme precipitation.During the precipitation intensity simulation,we found that after monsoon intensity was reduced,the typhoon precipitation intensity was not weakened obviously around its peak point but obviously weakened in other period.In order to determine the reasons,the hourly evolution characteristics of the typhoon precipitation and the typhoon track simulation were analyzed.It is found that control simulation experiment has the difference in the landing time of typhoon with the sensitivity simulation experiment,which basically corresponds to the time difference between the hourly variation peak of typhoon precipitation.This indicates that other complicated factors in the process of typhoon landing led to a non-obvious decrease in precipitation caused by typhoon landing after the weakening of the monsoon,while beyond the process of typhoon landing,the weakened summer monsoon has a significant decreasing effect on typhoon precipitation.

关 键 词：南海夏季风 台风“启德” 极端降水 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]