中国中东部能源发展战略的新思路  

New ideas for the energy development strategy of central and eastern China

作　　者：刘晓龙 崔磊磊[3] 葛琴 姜玲玲 江媛[2] 李彬 杜祥琬 LIU Xiao-long;CUI Lei-lei;GE Qin;JIANG Ling-ling;JIANG Yuan;LI Bin;DU Xiang-wan(Department of International Relations,School of Social Sciences,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Strateeic Consulting Center,Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China;Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院国际关系学系,北京100084 [2]中国工程院战略咨询中心,北京100088 [3]中国工程物理研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2019年第6期1-9,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家发改委能源研究所咨询项目“世界和我国中长期能源科技发展趋势研究”

摘　　要：中国中东部地区是能源的负荷中心,其能源结构的调整和优化事关中国能源革命的成败。长期以来,西电东送和北煤南运成为习惯,国家已给予足够重视。然而,由于对西部能源的过度开采,造成了环境的严重破坏。同时,大规模远距离输送煤和电,势必降低能源利用的效率并增加成本。本文利用统计数据分析了中国中东部地区能源供需现状及特征,发现中东部地区化石能源严重依赖外部供给,电力不能满足自给且本地电力以煤为主,非化石能源利用比例过低。为此,本文提出了将"远方来"与"身边来"相结合的战略新思路,即充分发展本地可再生能源,辅以西电东送和北煤南运来解决中国中东部能源问题。为了验证这一思路的可行性,本文深入分析了中东部地区各种可再生能源资源开发潜力,可再生能源开发的成本,以及典型国家和地区的成功经验等因素,认为中国中东部地区完全有可能做到能源高比例自给。为了实现中国中东部地区能源高比例自给,本文提出了节能提效优先,发展集中式智能化电网和分布式微网,以及通过局域的"虚拟电厂",利用大数据和智能技术将源、储、调、用等统管起来的主要途径。最后从强化顶层设计,加大对新业态和新模式的支持,以及加大国际合作力度等方面给出了政策措施建议。本文特别强调,中国中东部地区逐步降低煤电比例,提高可再生能源比例是一个漫长过程,需要各方下定决心付出巨大努力,需要切实转变传统观念和习惯。同时,也需要国家有关部门科学评估、认真规划、理顺体制和政策支持。The central and eastern part of China is the load center of energy,and the adjustment and optimization of its energy structure is closely related to the success of China’s energy revolution.For a long time,the transmission of electricity from the west to the east and coal from the north to the south has become a habit.However,the over-exploitation of energy resources in the west has caused serious environmental damage.At the same time,large-scale long-distance transmission of coal and electricity is bound to reduce energy efficiency and increase costs.This paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of energy supply and demand in the central and eastern regions of China by using statistical data,and finds that the fossil energy in the central and eastern regions are heavily dependent on external supply,while the electricity cannot meet self-sufficiency,and the local electricity is dominated by coal,and the proportion of non-fossil energy is too low.Therefore,this paper proposes a new strategic idea combining‘coming from afar’with‘coming from nearby’,that is,giving priority to the development of renewable energy,supplemented by the transmission of electricity from the west to the east and coal transportation from the north to the south to solve the energy problems in the central and eastern part of China.In order to verify the feasibility of this idea,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the development potential of various renewable energy resources in the central and eastern regions,the cost of renewable energy development,and the successful experience of typical countries and regions,believing that it is completely possible for the central and eastern regions of China to achieve a high proportion of energy self-sufficiency.In order to achieve a high proportion of energy self-sufficiency in the central and eastern regions of China,this paper puts forward the main ways of giving priority to energy conservation and efficiency improvement,developing centralized intelligent power grid and

关 键 词：可再生能源 能源战略 西电东送 北煤南运 能源自给 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]