中国能源消费陷入“杰文斯悖论”了吗——基于回弹效应的经验分析  

Does China's Energy Consumption Get Stuck with Jevons Paradox? Empirical Analysis Based on the Rebound Effect

作　　者：王启超 WANG Qichao(School of Economics,Ji'nan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2019年第2期1-11,共11页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71362026);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJA790135)

摘　　要：中国能源消费的回弹效应一直是理论界关注的焦点并且至今尚未形成统一的认识。基于产出最大化的角度,结合阿罗提出的"干中学"理论,利用嵌套产出函数建立内生增长模型,在劳动供给外生、能源效率内生的假设前提下推导得到中国能源消费回弹效应的理论测度模型,并利用中国1952—2015年能源消费、资本存量、真实产出和劳动的时间序列数据实证得出每一时期中国能源消费的回弹值。研究结论表明,短期而言,能源的产出弹性以及学习效应是影响能源回弹值的关键;长期而言,除能源产出弹性和学习效应外,资本和劳动的替代弹性、资本的产出弹性以及资本劳动的联合产出弹性也会影响能源回弹效应。中国的数据表明,1952—2015年期间中国能源消费的平均回弹效应是131.6%,最高达到216.4%,中国能源消费没有走出"杰文斯悖论",单纯期望改进能源效率减少能源消费的思路是不可行的。长期来看,1952—2015年期间中国能源消费的平均回弹效应是204.7%,最高达到960.6%,期间出现了超级节能和部分节能的情况。中国整体经济范围的能源消费可能走出"杰文斯悖论",节能潜力比较大,但是不能仅仅依靠改进能源效率减少能源消费,而应该考虑通过资本、人口、产业结构、经济转型等因素来制约回弹效应。2012—2015年由于能源回弹问题得到缓解,实现节能720272.02万吨标准煤,因此降低能源回弹效应有助于实现"十三五"节能目标。Rebound effect of energy consumption in China has been the focus of attention in the theoretical fields and it has not formed a unified opinion.Based on the theory of“Learning by Doing”that was proposed by Arrow,this paper builds an endogenous growth model by using nested production function from the perspective of output maximizing.This paper deduces a theoretical estimation model of energy consumption rebound effect under conditions that labor supply is exogenous but energy efficiency is endogenous.Time series data of energy consumption,capital,real output and labor in China from 1952 to 2015 are used to get the value of energy rebound effect for each period in China.Results indicate that output elasticity of energy and learning effect are keys to influence the direction of energy rebound effect in the short run.In the long run,in addition to factors mentioned above,substitution elasticity between capital and labor,output elasticity of capital and combined output elasticity of capital and labor are factors that influence the magnitude of energy rebound effect.China s data shows that the average rebound effect was 131.6%and the highest rebound effect was 216.4%during the period of 1952-2015.China's energy consumption gets stuck with“Jevons Paradox”.Thus it is infeasible to rely solely on improving energy efficiency to reduce energy consumption.In the long run,the average rebound effect of China s energy consumption was 204.7%and the highest was 960.6%during the period of 1952-2015.And there are sometimes a super energy-saving periods or partial energy saving periods.The whole economy energy consumption of China may be out of“Jevons Paradox”,and potential of energy saving is huge.To get rid of Jevons Paradox,capital,population,industry structure and economic transition should be considered.There were 7 202 720 200 tons of standard coal being saved between 2012 and 2015 since declining of rebound effect.Thusreducing energy rebound effect is helpful to achieve the energy saving goal of the 13th Five-Yea

关 键 词：能源消费 能源回弹效应 杰文斯悖论 节能 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]