中国社会核算矩阵的乘数分解研究  

Research on Multiplier Decomposition of Chinese Social Accounting Matrix

作　　者：邓光耀 Deng Guangyao(Center for Quantitative Analysis of Gansu Economic Development,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China;School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心 [2]兰州财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第11期5-8,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71704070);教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(17XJC790002);甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2017B-41);兰州财经大学丝绸之路经济研究院科研项目(JYYZ201603);兰州财经大学校级科研项目(Lzufe201601)

摘　　要：文章利用《中国统计年鉴》和投入产出表相关数据,基于社会核算矩阵乘数分解模型,测算了中国经济系统中活动账户、要素账户、部门账户等内生账户的乘数,并利用Stone加性形式将账户乘数矩阵分解为初始的注入、转移乘数效应的净贡献、开环或交叉乘数效应的净贡献、循环或闭环乘数效应的净贡献这四部分之和。研究结果发现:(1)纺织业、服装皮革羽绒及其他纤维制品制业、农业等账户乘数值较大,对促进就业,调节要素收入的分配方面的影响力较大。(2)各账户乘数分解项的大小次序与各账户的乘数的大小次序并不一致。从各账户乘数效应的分解值来看,转移乘数效应的净贡献最大的账户是服装皮革羽绒及其他纤维制品制业;开环或交叉乘数效应的净贡献最大的账户是农业;循环或闭环乘数效应的净贡献最大的账户是农业。This paper uses data from China Statistical Yearbook and Input-Output Table,and social accounting matrix multiplier decomposition model to calculate the multiplier of endogenous accounts such as activity account,factor account and sector account in China’s economic system. And then the paper employs the Stone additive form to decompose the account multiplier matrix into the sum of the four parts:the net contribution of the initial injection multiplier effect,the transfer multiplier effect,the open-loop or cross-loop multiplier effect,and the cyclic or closed-loop multiplier effect. The results show that 1) textile industry,clothing,leather,down and other fiber products industry,agriculture,etc. have larger account multiplier value,which produces comparatively greater impact on promoting employment and adjusting factor income distribution;2) the size order of the multiplier decomposition items for each account is not consistent with the magnitude order of the multiplier for each account. Seen from the decomposition value of the multiplier effect of various accounts,the net contribution of the transfer multiplier effect is the largest in clothing,leather,down and other fiber products;the largest net contribution from the open-loop or cross-multiplier effect is accounted for by agriculture;the account with the largest net contribution for the cyclic or closed-loop multiplier effect is agriculture.

关 键 词：社会核算矩阵 乘数分解模型 内生账户 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]