西藏入境旅游的成长及趋势分析  

Analysis on the Growth and Trend of Inbound Tourism in Tibet

作　　者：赵剑波[1] 安子轩 ZHAO Jianbo;AN Zixuan

机构地区：[1]西藏大学理学院

出　　处：《河北旅游职业学院学报》2019年第2期6-10,共5页Journal of Hebei Tourism College

基　　金：西藏自治区哲学社会科学项目(项目编号:14BJY004)

摘　　要：入境旅游兴衰反映着社会环境变化,研究西藏入境旅游的成长过程,就是发现西藏社会环境变化的过程。文章以1980~2017年西藏入境旅游人数和收入数据为基础,应用旅游本底趋势线法分析了西藏入境旅游的成长过程,并预测了2018~2020年西藏入境旅游的发展趋势。结果表明:西藏入境旅游可划分为起步探索、波动改善、持续发展、迅速增长四个阶段;预计2018~2020年西藏入境旅游会保持迅速增长。同时,文中认为社会环境的稳定、旅游设施的完善、生态环境的保护是入境旅游可持续发展的保障。The rise and fall of inbound tourism reflects the change of social environment. Researching on the growth process of inbound tourism in Tibet is to discover the process of its social and environmental changes. On the basis of statistics of both the number of inbound tourists and inbound tourism revenue from 1980 to 2017, this paper applies the background trend line to analyze the Tibetan inbound tourism growth and to predict the development trend of Tibetan inbound tourism from 2018 to 2020. What the research demonstrates are as follows. Tibetan inbound tourism can be divided into four stages, namely, initial exploration, improvement of fluctuation, sustained development and rapid growth. It is expected that inbound tourism in Tibet will maintain rapid growth from 2018 to 2020. At the same time, the paper argues that the stability of social environment and the improvement of tourism facilities and the protection of ecological environment are the guarantee for the sustainable development of inbound tourism.

关 键 词：入境旅游 本底趋势线 成长 西藏 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]