气温与儿童肺炎住院量的关系研究  

Relationship between temperature indicators and hospital admission for childhood pneumonia

作　　者：谷少华[1] 陆蓓蓓[1] 张良[1] 叶莉霞[1] 纪威[1] 王爱红[1] 许国章[1] GU Shao-hua;LU Bei-bei;ZHANG Liang;YE li-xia;JI Wei;WANG Ai-hong;XU Guo-zhang(Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315010,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《预防医学》2019年第7期678-682,共5页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(2018ZD040);宁波市医学科技计划项目(2017A40);宁波市市级医疗卫生品牌学科(PPXK2018-10)

摘　　要：目的分析不同气温指标与儿童肺炎患者住院量的关系。方法收集2015—2017年宁波市某综合性三甲医院0~14岁儿童肺炎患者住院资料和同期宁波市气象资料,采用广线义性模型结合分布滞后非线性模型分别定量评估日平均气温、日最低气温和日最高气温(各气温指标的第1百分位数为低温,第99百分位数为高温)与儿童肺炎住院量的暴露-反应关系。结果纳入儿童肺炎住院患者4542例,住院量分布具有明显季节性,夏季较低而冬季较高。排除相对湿度、PM2.5、长期趋势、季节趋势等混杂因素后,高温和低温时儿童肺炎住院量均呈增加趋势;分别采用日平均气温和日最低气温为暴露指标时,高温效应均有统计学意义,累积滞后0~7d儿童肺炎住院量增加的RR值分别为1.52(95%CI:1.04~2.23)和1.59(95%CI:1.08~2.34);采用日最高气温为暴露指标时,低温效应在累积滞后0~5d和累积后0~7d时有统计学意义,累积滞后0~7d儿童肺炎住院量增加的RR值为1.30(95%CI:1.02~1.66)。结论高温和低温均可能造成儿童肺炎发病风险升高。Objective To explore the relationship between different temperature indicators and hospital admission for childhood pneumonia. Methods The hospital admissions for pneumonia in children aged 0-14 years and meteorological data in Ningbo from 2015 to 2017 were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model combined with a generalized linear model was employed to analyze the exposure-response relationships between different temperature indicators(daily average,minimum and maximum temperature;the first percentile as low temperature and the 99th percentile as high temperature)and hospital admission for childhood pneumonia. Results A total of 4 542 cases of childhood pneumonia were recruited. There were obvious seasonal fluctuations found in the inpatient volume of childhood pneumonia,which peaked in winter and bottomed in summer. After adjusting for potential confounding variables such as relative humidity,PM2.5,long term trend and seasonal trend,the results suggested that after exposed to whether low or high temperature,the inpatient volume of childhood pneumonia would increase. When the daily average temperature and daily minimum temperature were employed,the effect of high temperature on the increase of inpatient volume for childhood pneumonia was statistically significant and the cumulative relative risk for a lag of 0-7 days were 1.52(95%CI:1.04-2.23)and 1.59(95%CI:1.08-2.34),respectively. When the daily maximum temperature was employed,the effect of low temperature on the increase of inpatient volume for childhood pneumonia was statistically significant and the cumulative relative risk for a lag of 0-7 days were 1.30(95%CI:1.02-1.66). Conclusion Our findings suggested that an increased risk of hospital admission for childhood pneumonia was associated with both low and high temperature.

关 键 词：气温 肺炎 儿童 住院量 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]