基于混合仿真的群体性事件演化机理建模分析研究  

Modeling and Analysis of Mass Incident Evolution Mechanism Based on Hybrid Simulation

作　　者：张鼎华[1,2] 李卫俊 申世飞[3] Zhang Dinghua;Li Weijun;Shen Shifei(School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641;Research Center of Local Risk Management,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641;Institute of Public Safety,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学公共管理学院,广州510641 [2]华南理工大学地方风险治理研究中心,广州510641 [3]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《情报杂志》2019年第7期131-137,130,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费“基于‘设施一群人’完善演化涌现分析的沿海城市韧性提升研究”(编号:2018ZDXM15);广州市社会科学规划课题“面向动态网群组织的广州市智慧社会治理模式人工计算解析路径研究”(编号:2018GZYB18);广东省社会科学联合会项目“基于大数据的特大城市治理创新研究——以广州市为例”(编号:GD17CGL04)研究成果之一;自然科学基金重大研究计划非常规突发事件应急管理研究项目“蓄意致灾突发事件动态应急决策研究”(编号:91024016)研究成果之一

摘　　要：[目的/意义]群体性事件是重大社会风险的表现形式之一,如何从纷繁复杂的矛盾中把握其演化机理是建立健全社会风险研判和决策风险评估机制的基础,对社会风险的防范和化解具有重要的意义。[方法/过程]提取了影响群体性事件的四类相关主体:公众、政府、媒体和社区,建立了适用于群体性事件演化机理的模型,并利用系统动力学和多Agent方法对群体性事件进行混合仿真,以此捕捉群体性事件的演化机理。[结果/结论]仿真实验的结果表明,该建模研究能反映出群体性事件的演化机理,并为应急管理提供了理论支持。[Purpose/Significance] Mass incident is one of the manifestations of major social risks. How to capture the evolutionary law from the complicated contradictions is the basis for establishing and improving the mechanism of social risk research and policy decision risk assessment. It is of great significance for the prevention and resolution of social risks.[Method/Process] This paper extracts four related subjects that affect mass incident: the public,the government,the media and the community. It establishes a model for the evolution mechanism of mass incident and simulates the model based on system dynamics and multi-agent method.[Result/Conclusion] The hybrid simulation results show that the modeling research can reflect the evolutionary mechanism of mass incident and provides theoretical support for emergency management.

关 键 词：群体性事件 系统动力学 多AGENT 混合仿真 应急管理 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学]