财政政策波动性与财政规则:基于开放条件DSGE模型的分析  

Fiscal Volatility and Fiscal Rules: Based on Open Economy DSGE Model

作　　者：王立勇[1] 纪尧 WANG Liyong;JI Yao(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,100081 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第6期121-135,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA009);国家自然科学基金项目(71473280)的资助

摘　　要：本文定量测度了中国财政政策波动性,构建了开放条件下的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究中国财政政策波动性的宏观影响与微观机理,并从降低财政政策波动性的负面影响视角考察财政规则的影响。结果表明:中国财政政策存在较大波动性;财政政策波动性冲击通过预期渠道导致总产出、消费、投资、出口和劳动雇佣等下滑及价格上涨;封闭条件会低估财政政策波动性的负面影响,开放条件下财政政策波动性的负面影响更大;金融摩擦会降低财政政策波动性冲击的影响;在不同的财政规则下,财政政策波动性对总产出、投资和私人消费均产生负效应。不同财政规则下的财政政策波动性影响程度存在差异,从总产出和私人消费角度看,在基准财政规则下,财政波动性的负效应最小。Public finance is an important pillar of national governance,and fiscal policy is a major macroeconomic research topic for both academics and practitioners.However,most relevant studies ignore the volatility of fiscal policy.A recent series of studies emphasizes the indispensable role of fiscal policy volatility.Some even find fiscal policy volatility to be a better indicator of macroeconomic policy,and suggest that fiscal volatility may be the cost of macroeconomic regulation.Significantly,fiscal policy volatility is now attracting close attention from both policy makers and academics in developed countries.To overcome the drawbacks of existing studies,this paper estimates China's quarterly average labor tax rate and capital tax rate using a modified Mendoza formula to better fit China's national income accounting and tax systems,measure China's fiscal volatility,and identify fiscal volatility shock.We then construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with fiscal policy volatility,financial friction,and open economic condition to study the macro impact and micro mechanisms of China's fiscal volatility and the role of open economy and financial friction.On this basis,we study the role of different fiscal rules in reducing the detrimental effects of fiscal volatility.The results are as follows.First,China's fiscal policy is rather volatile,with volatility peaks in 2003,2009,and 2012 resulting from SARS,the financial crisis,and the Eurozone debt crisis.Second,fiscal volatility shocks have a significant detrimental impact on output through the expectation channel.The detrimental effect is lower on consumption than on investment because of the strong desire of households to smooth consumption.Third,ignoring open economic conditions leads to underestimation of the detrimental impact of fiscal policy volatility on output,meaning that the detrimental effect is larger in an open economy model.Fourth,financial friction reduces the detrimental impact of fiscal volatility shock.Fifth,under different fiscal

关 键 词：财政政策波动性 财政规则 开放条件 金融摩擦 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]