“海上丝绸之路”沿岸国家海洋综合风险分析与量化评估——以菲律宾为例  

Comprehensive marine risk analysis and quantitative assessment of coastal countries on the "Maritime Silk Road" : taking Philippines as an example

作　　者：洪梅[1] 高正飞 曾文华 朱伟军[2] 李明[1] HONG Mei;GAO Zheng-fei;ZEN Wen-hua;ZHU Wei-jun;LI Ming(Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster/Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《海洋通报》2019年第3期257-265,279,共10页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875061);江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK20161464);国家科技大学科研计划项目(ZK18-02-48)

摘　　要：在“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”重大战略构想的背景下,结合东盟国家对海上丝绸之路的重要作用。本文从海洋经济和海洋环境的角度对东盟国家存在的海洋综合风险进行评估分析,这对我国加强对东盟国家的认识,规避来自海洋方面的风险,更好地与其进行合作具有重要意义。主要针对东盟四国构建了评价海洋综合风险的指标体系;在此基础上,提出了基于改进的投影寻踪方法的海洋综合风险评估模型,以东盟四国中的菲律宾作为代表开展实验验证,最终得到菲律宾的海洋综合风险等级,并依据评级结果对我国与菲律宾的合作提供辅助建议。With the implementation and promotion of China's initiative of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, considering their important role in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, this paper assesses and analyzes the maritime risks faced by ASEAN countries from the perspective of marine economy and marine environment. It is of great significance for China to improve the understanding of ASEAN countries and avoid risks from the ocean, which would facilitate better cooperation between China and neighboring countries. In this paper, the comprehensive marine risk assessment index system is constructed for four ASEAN countries. Then a comprehensive marine risk assessment model based on the improved projection pursuit method is proposed. The Philippines among the four ASEAN countries is taken as the representative to carry out the experimental verification. Finally, the comprehensive marine risk grade is obtained. According to the results of the rating,suggestions oncooperation with Philippines are provided.

关 键 词：21 世纪海上丝绸之路 海洋综合风险评估 指标体系 投影寻踪模型 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]