人口集聚对城市经济增长的影响研究  

Research into the Impact of Population Agglomeration on Urban Economic Growth

作　　者：赵慧卿[1] 郭晨阳 Zhao Huiqing;Guo Chenyang(Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjing 300134,China)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院

出　　处：《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2019年第3期1-8,共8页Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国国民财富总量构成、地区配置与跨期转换的统计测度研究”(16BTJ001);天津商业大学中青年骨干教师出国研修计划资助

摘　　要：选取2009—2016年30个城市全市与市辖区面板数据,采用系统GMM模型研究全市与市辖区人口集聚对城市经济增长的影响,对30个城市的人口集聚效应进行比较分析,并选取西安、武汉、天津等3个城市,分析其自实施人才引进政策后新增落户人口对城市经济的影响。研究结果表明:市辖区的人口集聚比全市更能促进城市经济的发展;中东部城市人口集聚对经济的促进作用明显小于西部地区;人口集聚与城市经济增长符合威廉姆森“倒U形”假说;西安、武汉和天津人口集聚对经济增长的促进作用依次递减,但武汉2017年新增落户人口人均创造价值高于西安;天津“海河英才”计划对经济的促进作用有限。This paper aims at studying the impact of population agglomeration on urban economic growth by using the 2009-2016 panel data of 30 cities and their administered districts and employing the systematic GMM.It compares and analyzes the population agglomeration effects on the 30 cities.It particularly selects three cities,namely,Xi’an,Wuhan and Tianjin,to study the impact of their newly registered population on the urban economy after the implementation of talent introduction policy.The study has the following findings:the population concentration of their administered districts can promote the urban economic growth more than that of the cities proper;the effect of population agglomeration in Central and East China on the economic growth is much less than that in West China;the correlation between population agglomeration and urban economic growth is in line with Williamson’s hypothesis—an inverse U-shape curve;the effect of population agglomeration in Xi’an,Wuhan and Tianjin on economic growth decrease successively,but the value per capita created by Wuhan’s population registered in 2017 is higher than that by Xi’an’s population registered in the same year;Tianjin’s Haihe Talent Plan has a limited role in promoting its economy.

关 键 词：人口集聚 系统GMM 人才大战 威廉姆森假说 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]