中国与俄罗斯产业内贸易增长潜力分析  

A Study of the Growth Potential of Intra-industry Trade between China and Russia

作　　者：李颖[1] Li Ying(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院

出　　处：《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2019年第3期9-16,30,共9页Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce

摘　　要：在分析中俄产业内贸易发展现状的基础上,利用中俄GL指数和MIIT指数测算中俄产业内贸易发展水平。结果表明,2000—2017年中俄产业内贸易发展相对稳定,但总体水平较低,不同类别商品的产业内贸易水平不同。对中俄产业内贸易潜力进行分析后发现,世界贸易增长效应是推动中俄两国贸易增长的首要因素;出口结构效应对中俄两国贸易增长的贡献率较低;出口竞争力效应则阻碍了中俄两国贸易的增长。为进一步提升中俄产业内贸易水平,应加快我国产业结构的调整和优化升级,减少政府的过度干预,畅通两国间的进出口渠道,实现专业化生产,获取规模经济优势。This paper,using both China and Russia’s GL index and the MIIT index,measures the development level of intra-industry trade between the two countries.The results show that the development of intra-industry trade between China and Russia from 2000 to 2017 is relatively stable but the overall development level is not high,and that the level of trade in different categories of goods is different.The analysis of the potential of China-Russia intra-industry trade indicates that the world trade growth effect is the primary factor driving China-Russia trade growth,that the export structure effect on the growth of China-Russia trade is not big,and that the export competitiveness effect impedes the growth of trade between the two countries.In order to promote the level of China-Russia intra-industry trade,China should speed up its adjustment and upgrading of industrial structures,reduce excessive government intervention,keep the import and export channels open,and implement the specialization of production to achieve scale economies effect.

关 键 词：中国 俄罗斯 产业内贸易 GL指数 MIIT指数 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]