成熟资源型城市绿色转型仿真研究  

Simulation research on green transformation of mature resource-based cities

作　　者：张旭[1] 庞顺新 ZHANG Xu;PANG Shun-xin(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《科技与管理》2019年第3期45-55,共11页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大国际(地区)合作研究项目(71320107006)

摘　　要：成熟资源型城市作为国家能源资源的核心保障区,绿色转型任务不可轻视,为促进其绿色转型政策体系的构建与完善,同时为转型政策的制定提供理论研究基础,本文运用系统动力学方法设计了能源资源、经济、社会、环境、技术5个子系统的成熟资源型城市绿色转型系统动力学模型,通过调整政府、产业、企业3大转型主体的政策参数,模拟了各政策情境下的发展趋势,研究结果表明:政府增加投资型环境规制政策的力度比费用型环境规制政策更能促进城市绿色经济水平的提升,费用型环境规制会挤占企业的研发投入,适当降低费用型规制力度可以促使企业积极进行绿色技术创新,同时政府和企业均应加大研发投入力度,提升城市绿色技术水平,利用创新驱动绿色转型,最后应注重优化产业结构,提升第三产业的投资比例,带动城市产业多元化发展,做到节能减排降耗。因此,建立政府、产业、企业三位一体的转型政策体系,才能优势互补,促进成熟型资源型城市早日实现绿色转型。A mature resource-based city is the core guarantee base for national energy resources, and the task of green transformation cannot be underestimated. In order to promote the construction and improvement of its green transformation policy system and provide theoretical research foundation for the formulation of transformation policy, this paper designs the dynamic resource-based urban green transformation system dynamics model of energy resources, economy, society, environment and technology. By adjusting the policy parameters of the three major transformation entities of government, industry and enterprise, it simulates the policy situation. The development trend shows that the government's efforts to increase investment-oriented environmental regulation policies can promote the improvement of urban green economy than cost-based environmental regulation policies. Cost-based environmental regulation will crowd out the R&D investment of enterprises, and appropriate reduction of cost-based regulation can promote green innovation. Enterprises should actively carry out green technology innovation. At the same time, the government and enterprises should increase investment in R&D, improve urban green technology capabilities, and drive innovation in green transformation. Finally, we should focus on optimizing the industrial structure, increasing the proportion of investment in the tertiary industry, and driving the diversification of urban industries. Only in this way can we achieve the goal of saving energy and reducing emissions. Therefore, the establishment of a three-in-one transformational combination system of government, industry and enterprises can complement each other's advantages and promote the early realization of green transformation in mature resource-based cities.

关 键 词：资源型城市 绿色转型 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]