加征美国大豆关税对中国大豆价量波动的影响  

Impacts of imposing US soybean tariff on price and volume fluctuation of soybean in China

作　　者：李安林[1] 张蕊[1] LI Anlin;ZHANG Rui(School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610000, China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第3期17-23,66,共8页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71171137);四川省软科学研究计划项目(2014ZR0054)

摘　　要：在中美经贸摩擦背景下,中国对美国大豆加征25%的关税。利用2014年1月到2018年2月的月度数据,采用VAR模型分析加征关税对中国进口大豆数量和国内大豆价格的影响。研究结果表明:加征关税会抑制中国从美国进口大豆的数量,不过该抑制作用呈现收敛特征;加征关税会引起国内大豆价格上升,但是上升幅度较小,对美进口大豆加征25%的关税最大程度将带动国内大豆价格上涨4.271%。整体来看加征关税对中国大豆价量的影响很小。其原因是巴西对美国大豆具有较强的替代作用,美国对中国大豆市场的垄断力显著低于巴西。In the context of Sino-US trade friction, China imposes a 25% tariff on soybean imports from the United States. The article analyzes the impact of additional tariffs on domestic soybean price and imports volume by VAR model using the monthly data from January 2014 to February 2018. The study shows tariff increase will reduce the amount of soybean imported from the United States, but the inhibiting effect is on the wane. In addition, tariff increase will result in the slight increase of domestic soybean price. A 25% tariff on U.S. soybean imports would result in the increase of domestic soybean price by 4.271%. On the whole, the effects of tariff increase on Chinese soybean price and imports are very small. The reason lies in that Brazilian soybeans are good substitutes for American soybeans, and the monopoly power of the United States on Chinese soybean market is significantly lower than that of Brazil.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 大豆 关税 价格 垄断力 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]