广州港口货运物流与对外贸易关系实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Port Freight Logistics and Foreign Trade in Guangzhou

作　　者：刘璟 杨佳思 LIU Jing;YANG Jia-si(Zhaoqing University, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, China, 526061)

机构地区：[1]肇庆学院

出　　处：《广东开放大学学报》2019年第3期20-27,共8页JOURNAL OF GUANGDONG OPEN UNIVERSITY

基　　金：2018年广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(人文社科)“粤港澳大湾区产业集群协同创新战略研究”(2018WTSCX156);肇庆学院人文社科项目“珠三角从制造到智造的转型研究”(201804);肇庆学院(博士)科研启动基金“粤港澳大湾区‘9+2’格局下肇庆制造业集群发展战略”(2018ZXBS05)科研成果

摘　　要：以广州市2000-2017年港口货运物流和对外贸易的相关数据为基础,采用时间序列模型的平稳性检验(ADF检验),建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,实证研究广州港口货运物流与对外贸易的关系。通过单位根检验表明,港口货物吞吐量序列和商品进出口总额序列是平稳的。通过脉冲响应函数分析发现,广州对外贸易对港口货运物流的影响是负向的,但处于一个较小的数值范围波动,这种负向影响较微弱。广州港口货运物流对其对外贸易短期具有正效应,长期影响效果不大。从方差分解图分析发现,广州港口货物吞吐量对商品进出口总值呈正相关,贡献率较高,这说明从长期来看广州港口货运物流对进出口贸易贡献率在逐年增加。Based on the relevant data of port freight logistics and foreign trade in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2017, the stability test (ADF test) of time series model is used to establish VAR model and impulse response function, conducting an empirical study on Guangzhou port freight logistics and foreign trade relationship. The empirical results show that: First, the unit root test shows that the port cargo throughput sequence and the commodity import and export total sequence are stable, and the VAR model is established according to the optimal lag order. Second, the analysis of impulse response function indicates that the impact of Guangzhou's foreign trade on port freight logistics is negative, but within a small numerical range, therefore the negative impact is weak. Third, Guangzhou port cargo logistics has a positive effect on its foreign trade in the short term, but the long-term impact is not effective. Fourth, the analysis of variance decomposition map demonstrates that the cargo throughput of Guangzhou port is positively correlated with the total value of imports and exports of goods, and the contribution rate is high. This shows that the contribution rate of Guangzhou port freight logistics to import and export trade is increasing year by year in the long run.

关 键 词：港口货运物流 对外贸易 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F294.3[经济管理—国民经济]