面向地震应急的人口数据精度评价  

Accuracy Evaluation of Population Data for Earthquake Emergency Response

作　　者：习聪望 何少林[2] 陈文凯[2] 孙艳萍[2] XI Congwang;HE Shaolin;CHEN Wenkai;SUN Yanping(Shaanxi Earthquake Agency,Xi'an 710068,China;Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,西安710068 [2]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《华南地震》2019年第2期1-6,共6页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFB0504104);甘肃省科技支撑项目(1504FKCA065);陕西省地震局启航与创新基金(QC201826)联合资助

摘　　要：人员伤亡评估是实际地震应急工作中最重要的内容之一,而不同精度的人口数据对震后快速评估人员伤亡影响很大。以汶川地震为例,研究甘肃陇南地区不同精度的人口数据,基于GIS平台以高精度的居民地单元人口数据为参考,比较居民点单元、行政村单元、乡镇单元、区县单元四种空间化方法人口数据,对各种人口数据进行精度评价。研究结果表明:随着烈度区面积的减小,不同空间化方法获得的人口数据误差有变大的趋势,人口数据中行政单元越大,误差越大;区县单元人口空间化与居民地人口空间化数据误差最大,相对误差约为144.78%;居民点密度空间化人口数据误差最小,相对误差为15.38%。汶川地震甘肃陇南地区万人死亡率计算结果中,区县单元人口空间化数据计算得到的万人死亡率与居民地人口数据误差最大,绝对误差为5.31,居民点单元人口空间化数据计算得到的万人死亡率与居民地人口数据误差最小,绝对误差为0.70。Casualty assessment is one of the most important contents in earthquake emergency,and the precision of population data has a great impact on the rapid assessment of casualties after earthquakes.Taking Wenchuan Earthquake as an example,different precision population data in Longnan area of Gansu Province is studied.Based on the GIS platform,the population data of high-precision residential units are taken as reference,and four spatial population data of residential units,administrative village units,township units and district and county units are compared,and the accuracy of various population data is evaluated.The results show that with the decrease of intensity area,the error of population data obtained by different spatialization methods tends to increase.The larger the administrative unit in population data,the greater the error.The error of population spatialization data of district and county units and residential area is the largest,the relative error is about 144.78%.The error of population spatialization data of residential area density is the smallest,the relative error is 15.38%.Among the results of the death rate calculation of ten thousand people in Longnan area of Gansu Province after Wenchuan earthquake,the absolute error between the death rate of ten thousand people and the population data of residential areas calculated from the spatialized population data of district and county units is 5.31,and the error between the death rate of ten thousand people and the population data of residential areas calculated from the spatialized population data of residential areas is the smallest,and the absolute error is 0.70.

关 键 词：地震应急 人口 精度 陇南地区 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学] P609[天文地球—固体地球物理学]