基于非均衡理论的住宅商品房市场有效供求失衡分析  

Analysis of Effective Supply and Demand Imbalance in Residential Commercial Housing Market Based on Disequilibrium Theory

作　　者：张浩 陈立文[1] Zhang Hao;Chen Liwen(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Human Resources Department,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]河北经贸大学人事处,河北石家庄050061

出　　处：《经济与管理》2019年第4期86-92,共7页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY060);河北省社会科学基金项目(HB18YJ003)

摘　　要：利用1998—2016年河北省11个地市的面板数据,基于非均衡理论运用市场聚合条件下的非均衡模型,对河北省住宅商品房市场有效需求、有效供给和非均衡度进行实证分析。结果表明:1998—2016年,非均衡成为河北省住宅商品房市场的一种常态,在此期间经历了五个非均衡发展阶段。为了维护社会稳定和住宅房地产市场的健康发展,政府可通过增加住宅商品房有效供给、抑制过度投机和投资需求、健全房地产法律法规体系等措施减少有效需求和有效供给间的差距。Using the panel data of 11 prefectures and cities in Hebei province from 1998 to 2016,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effective demand, effective supply and disequilibrium degree of residential commercial housing market in Hebei province based on the disequilibrium theory and the disequilibrium model under the condition of market convergence. The analysis results show that from 1998 to 2016, disequilibrium has become a normal state of residential commercial housing market in Hebei province, which has experienced five disequilibrium development stages. In order to maintain social stability and the healthy development of the residential real estate market,the government can reduce the gap between effective demand and effective supply by increasing the effective supply of commercial housing, curbing excessive speculation and investment demand,and improving the legal system of real estate.

关 键 词：非均衡理论 双曲线聚合方程 住宅房地产市场 有效供求 非均衡度 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]