房地产市场风险因素识别与评价  

Identification and Evaluation of Risk Factors of Real Estate Market

作　　者：何叶荣 高洁 胡朝霞 HE Yerong;GAO Jie;HU Zhaoxia(School of Economics and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China;School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China;School of Economics and Management, Huainan Normal University, Huainan 232038, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,合肥230601 [2]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001 [3]淮南师范学院经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232038

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第3期8-12,共5页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51374114);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(13YJCZH077);安徽省教育厅高校人文社科重点项目(SK2018A0564;SK2018A0521;SK2015A302)

摘　　要：从价格、存货、资金和政策四个层面的因素入手,选取相对应的4个一级指标和15个二级指标,构建起房地产市场风险评价指标体系;运用结构方程模型(SEM)对各项评价指标的影响程度进行重要性排序,提炼出房地产市场的主要风险因素,进而对房地产市场风险因素进行评价;针对性地提出房地产市场风险的防范策略。This paper chooses four first-level indices and fifteen second-level indices from the four aspects of inventory, price, capital and policy to construct the risk evaluation index system of the real estate market, and uses the structural equation model(SEM) to rank the importance of the impact degree of each evaluation index. The main risk factors of the real estate market are determined, and then these risk factors of the real estate market are evaluated. The strategies to prevent the real estate market risk are also put forward.

关 键 词：房地产 市场风险 结构方程模型 风险评价 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]