1920年海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡滑距统计与预测分析  

Sliding distance Statistics and Prediction of the Loess Landslide Triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake

作　　者：常晁瑜 杨顺 焦淙湃 彭达[1] CHANG Chaoyu;YANG Shun;JIAO Congpai;PENG Da(Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;ChinaEarthquake Administration of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 750001,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201 [2]中国地震局工程力学研究所中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点研究室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [3]宁夏回族自治区地震局,宁夏银川750001

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2019年第2期36-43,共8页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：地震科技星火计划(XH184404Y);国家自然科学基金项目(51608118);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2017512013)

摘　　要：为了分析和预测1920年海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡滑体的最大滑动距离,利用野外现场调查获得的467处海原特大地震诱发滑坡数据,对滑坡所在地距断层距离、原始斜坡长度、原始斜坡高度和原始斜坡坡型等各项影响因素进行了统计分析,利用多元非线性回归方法,给出了最大滑动距离与各影响因素之间关系的经验公式。得到如下结论:海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡最大滑动距离受原始斜坡高度、原始斜坡长度、断层距及斜坡坡形的影响较大;给出了海原特大地震诱发黄土滑坡最大滑动距离的统计公式;利用本文提出的统计公式筛选出不符合预测结果但值得进一步研究的12个典型滑坡。In order to analyze and predict the maximum sliding distance of the loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake, 467 landslide data induced by the Haiyuan earthquake were conducted using. The influencing factors like distance from the fault site to the fault location, slope angle, slope length, slope height and slope type were statistically analyzed. Using the multiple nonlinear regression method, an empirical formula representing the relationship between the maximum sliding distance and various influencing factors was given. The following conclusions are obtained:1. The maximum sliding distance of landslide is greatly influenced by the original slope height, the original slope length, the fault distance and the slope shape.. 2. The prediction formula for the maximum sliding distance of loess landslides triggered by the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake is given. 3. Using the prediction formula proposed in this paper, 12 typical landslides that do not meet the prediction results but have special significance and are worthy of further study are screened out.

关 键 词：海原特大地震 黄土地震滑坡 滑坡滑距 多元非线性回归 统计预测 

分 类 号：TU443[建筑科学—岩土工程]