环境规制对中国制造业升级的非线性影响——基于面板平滑迁移模型的经验分析  

The Nonlinear Effects of Environmental Regulation on Manufacting Upgrading in China:An Analysis Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

作　　者：林秀梅[1,2] 关帅 LIN Xiumei;GUAN Shuai(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Business School,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期1-8,共8页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA015);吉林财经大学新入职博士科研专项项目(08183402)

摘　　要：制造业作为中国未来经济增长核心,承载着实现环境保护和经济增长目标的双重压力。本文聚焦于环境规制作为治理环境的一把双刃剑,能否与制造业结构优化升级并行不悖的问题,从理论上对环境规制和制造业升级两者之间存在的动态关联机制进行了分析,并基于1998—2015年中国30个省市区制造业规模以上工业企业的面板数据,运用面板平滑迁移回归模型(PSTR)检验了环境规制与制造业升级的关系。研究发现:(1)环境规制和制造业升级之间存在显著的非线性关系;(2)环境规制能有效倒逼制造业升级,并且严规制对制造业升级的促进作用要强于弱规制;(3)环境规制可以作为制造业升级的一个有效内在驱动力。因此,政府应因地制宜,制定适当的环境规制政策,从而推动制造业升级,为实现经济绿色增长提供内在激励。As the core of China’s future economic growth,manufacturing upgrading bears the dual pressure of realizing environmental protection and economic growth. As a double-edged sword for environmental governance,this paper focuses on whether environmental regulation can go hand in hand with the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure. We theoretically analyze the dynamic correlation mechanism between environmental regulation and manufacturing upgrade,and use a panel smooth transition regression model to test the relationship between environmental regulation and China’s manufacturing upgrading by panel data of industrial sectors in China from 1998 to 2015. The main conclusions are as follows: There is a significant non-linear relationship between environmental regulation and manufacturing upgrade. Environmental regulation can effectively force the upgrading of manufacturing industry,and strict regulation will promote the manufacturing upgrading stronger than weak regulation. Environmental regulation can be used as an effective internal driving force. Therefore,the government should setup appropriate environmental regulation policies to promote manufacturing upgrading so as to provide internal incentives for achieving economic green growth.

关 键 词：环境规制 制造业升级 排污密度 绿色增长 倒逼效应 波特假说 面板平滑迁移模型 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学] F407