基于盲数理论的电力变压器全寿命周期成本分析  

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Power Transformer Based on Blind Number Theory

作　　者：鄢仁武 罗家满 徐育福 YAN Renwu;LUO Jiaman;XU Yufu(Fuzhou Industrial Integration Automation Industry Technology Innovation Center,College of Information Science and Engineering,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China;Maintenance Branch,State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd,Fuzhou 350013,China)

机构地区：[1]福建工程学院信息科学与工程学院福州市工业集成自动化行业技术创新中心,福州350118 [2]国网福建省电力有限公司检修分公司,福州350013

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2019年第6期15-20,共6页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2018H0003,2017J01731);福建省教育厅科技项目(JT180339,JAT171096);福建工程学院基金项目(GY-Z11002)

摘　　要：传统的电力变压器全寿命周期成本(LCC)分析过程中存在着多种不确定性信息的影响。针对这一特点,本文将盲数理论引入到电力变压器全寿命周期成本分析中。利用盲数表达评估参数的不确定性,建立电力变压器全寿命周期成本的盲数模型。该模型包含了电力变压器初始投资成本、运行维护成本、损耗成本、环境成本、故障成本、退役处置成本,并在充分考虑资金的时间价值情况下,对电力变压器全寿命周期成本进行分析。通过算例分析不仅可以计算出电力变压器全寿命周期成本的期望值,而且还能得到不同成本的可能分布区间以及相对应的可信度信息,从而提高估算结果的合理性。Many kinds of uncertain information influence the life cycle cost(LCC)analysis of the traditional power transformer. In view of this characteristic,blind number theory is introduced. Based on the uncertainty of blind num. bers in expressing evaluation parameters,the blind number model of LCC of power transformer is established. This mod. el includes the power transformer’s initial investment cost,operation and maintenance cost,loss cost,environmental cost,failure cost,and disposal cost. Moreover,with the full consideration of the time value of fund,the LCC of power transformer is analyzed. Through the analysis of a numerical example,the expected value of the LCC of power transform. er can be calculated;in addition,the possible distribution range of different costs and the corresponding credibility in. formation can be obtained. In this way,the rationality of the estimation result can be improved.

关 键 词：电力变压器 全寿命周期成本 盲数理论 时间价值 合理性 

分 类 号：TM41[电气工程—电器]