人类活动和气候变化对岚河流域河川径流的影响  

Change in Runoff within the Lan River Basin Due to Climate Change and Human Activities

作　　者：王国庆[1,2] 张建云[1,2] 鲍振鑫[1,2] 唐雄朋 严小林[1,2] WANG Guoqing;ZHANG Jianyun;BAO Zhenxin;TANG Xiongpeng;YAN Xiaolin(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,南京210029

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2019年第6期113-118,共6页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41330854,41371063,41401024);“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601501,2016YFA0601601)

摘　　要：径流变化归因识别是流域治理开发和水资源管理的重要基础工作。[目的]识别岚河流域河川径流的主要影响因素。[方法]采用水文模拟的途径定量评估了气候要素变化和人类活动对山西省岚河流域河川径流的影响。[结果]RCCC-WBM模型对岚河天然径流过程具有较好的模拟效果,NSE超过80%,总量模拟误差RE小于2%;由于气候和人类活动等环境要素变化的影响,1968年之后,上静游站实测径流量较前期减少了50%以上;1969 2015年,人类活动的影响量占径流总减少量的76.1%,是岚河径流减少的主要原因;由于近期降水增加,气候要素变化对径流减少的影响有减弱趋势。[结论]人类活动是岚河径流的主要影响因素。[Objective]Climate change coupled with anthological activities could alter the hydrological cycle of catchment. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting the runoff in Lan river catchment within Shanxi province.[Method]The analysis was based on hydrological simulation using the RCCC-WBM model.[Result]The RCCC-WBM model worked well under natural condition with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient being more than 80% and the relative errors less than 2%. The measured runoff from 1969 to 2015 from the gauge at Shangjingyou station showed a decrease by more than 50% since 1968, 76.1% of which was ascribed to human activities. Due to the rise in precipitation in this area over the past few years, the decrease in runoff induced by cli- mate changes became less significant.[Conclusion]Human activities are the main reason behind the decrease in runoff in the Lan river basin.

关 键 词：流域 河川径流 归因分析 人类活动 气候变化 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]