贸易约束、不确定性与中国进口效率  

Trade Constraints, Uncertainty and China Import Efficiency

作　　者：王培志[1] 孙利平 WANG Peizhi;SUN Liping(School of International Trade and Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2019年第4期61-75,共15页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国对‘一带一路’沿线国家OFDI贸易优化效应”(17BJL014);全国统计科学研究项目“自主开放视角下中国出口转型升级的微观测度与实现路径研究”(2018LY88);山东省社会科学规划青年学者重点培养计划研究专项“开放型经济新体制、全球价值链地位与山东省出口转型升级”(18CQXJ25)

摘　　要：在分析贸易约束、不确定性和进口效率之间的逻辑关系基础上,构建异质性随机前沿引力模型,定量测算中国在贸易约束下的进口效率。结论表明:贸易约束的存在使得中国进口效率分布在20%~30%区间,平均水平为21.18%,结论经多种测算方法检验稳健。关税和非关税壁垒降低、自贸协定签署、对象国通关效率提升不仅可以缓解贸易偏离,还能降低贸易偏离不确定,但这种效应依市场不同呈现异质性。中国对发达国家和中等发达国家的进口效率高出对发展中国家、贫困国家的进口效率约2%~4%,中国对RCEP的平均进口效率为22.99%,高于对OBOR、FTA、WTO的进口效率。中国对OBOR和FTA的进口效率相近。Based on an analysis of the logical relationship among trade constraints, uncertainty and import efficiency, this paper constructs a heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model to quantitatively measure China import efficiency under trade constraints. The research results show that the existence of trade constraints makes China import efficiency distributed in the range of 20%-30% with an average level of 21.18%, and this conclusion is robust tested by a variety of measurement methods. Tariff and non-tariff barrier reduction, free trade agreement signature and customs clearance efficiency improvement of target countries can not only alleviate trade deviation but also reduce trade deviation uncertainty, but this effect is heterogeneous according to different markets. China import efficiency to developed and medium-developed countries is about 2%-4% higher than that to developing and poor countries, and China average import efficiency to RCEP is 22.99%, higher than that to OBOR, FTA and WTO while China import efficiency to OBOR and FTA is similar.

关 键 词：贸易约束 进口效率 偏离不确定性 异质性随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]