生态环境与农业气象  

Ecological Environment and Agrometeorology

出　　处：《中国气象科学研究院年报》2018年第1期79-95,共17页Annual Report of Cams

摘　　要：生态环境与农业气象研究进展1.生态气象1.1植物地理分布的气候适应性及其对气候变化的响应—以短花针茅为例基于地球表面的能量平衡和水量平衡方程,结合植被地理分布的气候控制机理,从区域层次和年尺度上筛选出了决定短花针茅地理分布的6个主导气候因子:年极端最低温度(Tmin)、最暖月平均温度(T7)、最冷月平均温度(T1)、年均温(T)、年辐射量(Q)和年降水量(P)。利用最大熵模型(Max Entmodel)模拟短花针茅潜在地理分布的结果表明,我国短花针茅潜在适宜分布区远大于当前分布范围。基于气候资源保证率和短花针茅存在概率,划分了我国短花针茅潜在地理分布的气候适宜区,并给出了各气候适宜区的主导气候因子阈值。模拟了气候变化背景下近50年短花针茅地理分布的变化范围和程度,发现我国短花针茅潜在总适宜分布面积呈增加趋势,其中完全适宜区增加最明显,预测未来2011-2040年RCP4.5情景下总适宜分布面积增加,而RCP8.5情景下减小。以综合资源概率为指标,定量评价了短花针茅的适应性与脆弱性,发现1961-2000年短花针茅的自适应性为中度适应,1976-2010年为轻度适应,拓展适应性均呈增加趋势。在RCP4.5情景下2011-2040年短花针茅为轻度脆弱,在RCP8.5情景下为中度脆弱,拓展适应性均增加。这表明短花针茅对本地气候变化的自适应能力在减弱,而拓展潜力在增加。Progress in Research on Ecological Environment and Agrometeorology 1 Ecological meteorology 1.1 Climatic suitability of the geographic distribution of Stipa breviora in Chinese temperate grassland under climate change Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. brevi.ora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results show that S. breviflora抯 geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels杕ost suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas朾ased on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora抯 potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011 to 2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively;however, the most suitable area increased and moved to the western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results reveal that the distribution area of S. brevi.ora still has greater potential for expansion.

关 键 词：农业气象 生态环境 植物地理分布 气候适应性 短花针茅 气候变化 月平均温度 水量平衡方程 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]