基于系统动力学的东莞有机废弃物替代化肥潜力研究  

Potential of partial substitution of chemical fertilizer by organic manures in Dongguan based on system dynamics

作　　者：秦钟[1,2,3] 隆少秋 王璐[1,2,3] 张春霞 袁兰[1,2,3] Qin Zhong;Long Shaoqiu;Wang Lu;Zhang Chunxia;Yuan Lan(College of Natural Resources and Environment,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China;Key Laboratory of Construction Land Improvement,Ministry of Land and Resources,Guangzhou 510642,China;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Land Use and Consolidation,Guangzhou 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学资源环境学院,广州510642 [2]国土资源部建设用地再开发重点实验室,广州510642 [3]广东省土地利用与整治重点实验室,广州510642

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2019年第11期223-232,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2014B020206002);国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFD1100103);国土资源部建设用地再开发重点实验室;广东省土地利用与整治重点实验室开放课题(SCAUGIS-OF2014-01)

摘　　要：综合考虑作物秸秆还田、禽畜养殖和农村生活有机废弃物排放这3个过程中所产生的养分资源以及农作物、果树生长需要吸纳的养分,构建系统动力学模型,探究东莞种养结合、有效利用有机废弃物养分从而替代化肥施用的潜力。结果表明,2025年农作物和果树养分的总需求量为4.6136×10^3 t,作物秸秆、禽畜养殖和农村生活有机废弃物肥料蕴含的养分为0.430 6×10^3和4.514 3×10^3 t。若这些有机粪肥资源按存储发酵、沼气处理和堆肥加工这3种方式处理,则实际可提供的总养分依次为3.913 9×10^3,4.803 7×10^3和3.055 0×10^3 t。根据有机肥氮素替代50%化肥氮的原则来估算有机废弃物养分供应量,则有机粪肥资源所提供的氮、磷、钾养分均超出当地农作物和果树生长所需,需要外运粪肥以降低对环境的影响。考虑当地作物秸秆还田方式,即全部还田、部分还田和不还田(不还田的秸杆用于焚烧或作饲料),需要移出的养分比例分别为73.2%~74.1%,53.7%~60.0%和24.1%~33.5%。Strategies for managing livestock manures and slurries in a sustainable manner have become an import issue with the rapid development in livestock and poultry industry in China.The manure production and utilization,usually involves the farming population,livestock and poultry breeding and crop cultivation,can achieve planting-breeding balance and reduce emissions of nutrients and pollutants to the environment.Understanding the process of manure nutrients in this comprehensive system can be helpful to strategies for the efficient recycling of manures.We develop a STELLA(Structural Thinking,Experiential Learning Laboratory with Animation)model for predicting the manure productions in agricultural and rural livelihoods and the changes in arable land bearing capacity for manure resources,and estimating the balance between local manure nutrients supply and fertilizer demand under different scenarios of crop straw returning to field and manure processing methods.The study aimed to provide scientific information for optimize planting and breeding structure,achieve the sustainable recycling of manures,and promote the formulation of relevant policies.The model was applied to Dongguan in Pearl River Delta,an ideal candidate for investigating regional dynamics of manure nutrients with the adjustment of stock breeding industry and continuing reduced livestock and poultry breeding in recent years.The dynamics of manure nutrients included in the model were:1)The loading capacity of agricultural land soil for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients according to limitations on nitrogen and phosphorus application issued by the European Union;2)The estimated amount of crop straw and its nutrient content.The crop straw nitrogen(N),phosphorus(P2 O5)and potassium(K2 O)nutrients returned to field were also quantified separately under three returning proportions;3)The amount of livestock manure estimated by the excretive coefficient method.Manures produced from different livestock species were converted into pig equivalent.Manure nutrients w

关 键 词：养分 粪 化肥 系统动力学 情景分析 东莞 

分 类 号：S11[农业科学—农业基础科学]