市政管网运行风险发生机理及评价指标体系  

The operational risk mechanism and evaluation index system of municipal pipeline networks

作　　者：宋朝阳 刘威[1,2] 姚天野 SONG Zhaoyang;LIU Wei;YAO Tianye(College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University;State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院 [2]土木工程防灾国家重点实验室

出　　处：《油气储运》2019年第6期629-634,641,共7页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目“城市市政管网运行安全保障技术研究”,2016YFC0802400

摘　　要：为实现城市市政管网运行安全风险的快速科学评估,通过网络调查和实地调研的方式对管网运行安全事故进行收集和统计,并分析了主要风险因素的事故影响机理,包括第三方破坏、腐蚀、老化和温度变化。基于此,建立了市政管网运行安全风险评价指标体系,其中指标评分采用半定量法,指标权重采用层次分析法。试验结合某工业园区的燃气管网进行风险评估,结果表明:各指标的评分依据易于确定,可操作性强,评估结果与调研情况符合较好,适用于市政管网运行安全风险的快速评估。In order to evaluate the operational safety risk of municipal pipeline networks rapidly and scientifically, the operational safety accidents of pipeline networks were collected and analyzed by means of online survey and field investigations. Then, the accident influence mechanisms of key risk elements were studied, including third-party damage, corrosion, aging and temperature change. Based on this, the risk evaluation index system for operational safety of municipal pipeline networks was established. In the system, the index scores are determined by semi-quantitative method and the index weights are computed by analytic hierarchy process. Finally, test was conducted on a certain industrial park and the risk of gas pipeline network was assessed. It is shown that the scoring criteria of each index can be determined easily and operated conveniently, and its evaluation results are in accordance with the survey results, so this risk evaluation index system is applicable to the fast risk evaluation of municipal pipe networks.

关 键 词：市政管网 风险评估 机理分析 指标体系 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]