国内旅游能否突破“胡焕庸线”——国庆黄金周与全年国内旅游西向迁移趋势分析  

Can domestic tourism break through the “Hu Line”: westward migration trend analysis of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism

作　　者：金红燕 孙根年 JIN Hongyan;SUN Gennian(School of geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期48-58,共11页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(12BJY131)

摘　　要：以2005—2017年国庆黄金周与全年国内旅游客流量数据为依据,通过四分位空间分级、集中性与差异性指数比较及重心转移轨迹测量,分析黄金周与全年国内旅游的空间结构变化,探讨国内旅游能否率先突破“胡焕庸线”以实现东西部经济的均衡发展。结果表明:黄金周与全年国内旅游呈现“胡焕庸线”的分布特征,历年来两者发展规模均有所提升并呈现向西扩展趋势;黄金周与全年国内旅游地区差异趋于扁平化,其中后者扁平化趋势更为显著,但“胡焕庸线”两侧的累加市场占比差距依旧较大;黄金周与全年国内旅游重心具有向西南推进趋势,且全年比黄金周推进的幅度更大;结合人口、经济分布及两者权衡,本文设定了国内旅游突破“胡焕庸线”的3个标准,依据时间序列分析及预测,2016年国内旅游已跨越了经济界线4%,预计到2020年、2021年有可能突破人口-经济权衡界线5%,2023年、2024年突破人口界线6%。The “Hu Line” is a significant geographical boundary of China′s population and economy distribution. Tourism has strong liquidity and economic driving ability. Whether domestic tourism can take the lead in breaking through the "Hu Line" is an important step to achieve balanced economic development between China′s eastern and western regions. Based on the tourist traffic data of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism in 2005-2017,through the quartile space grading,comparing concentration and difference index and measuring the track of gravity center,the spatial structure changes of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are analyzed. The results indicate that National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism present obvious “Hu Line” spatial distribution characteristics. Over the years,the tourist size of both increased and it has demonstrated a trend of expanding westward. The regional gap of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism tends to be flat,and the latter flattening trend is more apparent,but the cumulative market share difference on both sides of the “Hu Line” is still relatively large. The gravity centers of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are shifting to southwest region,and the annual is sharper than the Golden Week. Combining population,economy distribution and their trade-offs,three standards for domestic tourism to span the “Hu Line” are set. According to time series analysis and forecast,domestic tourism has crossed the economy boundary (4%) in 2016. It is expected that it will break through the population-economy balance boundary (5%)in 2020-2021,and it will surmount the population boundary (6%) in 2023-2024.

关 键 词：国内旅游 胡焕庸线 空间迁移 国庆黄金周 

分 类 号：F590.85[经济管理—旅游管理] F592.99[经济管理—产业经济]