沿海城市经济与环境协调关系的时空演变分析  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the Coordination Relationship Between Economy and Environment in Coastal Cities

作　　者：徐孟 刘大海 邢文秀 李森 XU Meng;LIU Da-hai;XING Wen-xiu;LI Sen(First Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Qingdao 266061, China;School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061 [2]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《海岸工程》2019年第2期154-164,共11页Coastal Engineering

基　　金：海洋公益性行业科研专项——基于生态系统的海洋功能区划关键技术研究与应用(201505001);自然资源部支持项目——海洋战略规划制定与实施(QT4219001)和海洋经济高质量发展政策制定实施和监测评估(QT4319001)

摘　　要：运用耦合协调模型和空间相关性模型研究了2006—2016年53个沿海城市的经济发展与生态环境协调关系的时空演变趋势、重心迁移、空间相关性。结果表明:我国沿海城市经济发展与生态环境的协调发展状况总体呈向好态势,但总体协调度不高,仍处于协调发展的初级阶段;协调度发展存在严重的空间不均衡性,且呈逐步扩大态势,高值区域主要分布在省会城市和计划单列市,而其他大部分城市仍处于失调状态;2006—2016年协调度重心均位于浙江省金华市,并逐步向西南方向迁移;全局Moran’sI指数和局部Moran散点图显示协调度在空间上呈现明显的正相关,空间集聚性较强。The spatial and temporal evolution trend, gravity center migration and spatial correlation of the coordinated relationship between economic development and ecological environment in 53 coastal cities from 2006 to 2016 are studied by using coupled coordination and spatial correlation models.The results indicate that the coordinated development between the economic development and the ecological environment in the coastal cities of China shows, as a whole, a good trend, but the overall coordination degree is not high and still in an initial stage of coordinated development.A serious spatial imbalance occurs in the degree of coordinated development among the coastal cities and tends to expand gradually.The areas with a relatively high coordination degree are mainly distributed in the provincial capital cities and the cities specifically designed in the state plan, whereas most other cities are still in an imbalance state.From 2006 to 2016, the gravity center of the coordination degree was located in Jinhua City of Zhejiang Province and migrated toward southwest gradually.Both the global Moran s I index and the local Moran scatter graph show that the degree of coordination is positively correlated in space and has a strong spatial agglomeration.

关 键 词：协调度 时空演变 沿海城市 重心迁移 空间相关性 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学]