近50年江苏省春季降水异常对冬油菜产量的潜在影响  

Potential Effect of Abnormal Spring Precipitation on Winter Rapeseed Yield in Jiangsu Province during Recent 50 Years

作　　者：闵俊杰 高操 常志坤 张方敏[3] 黄进[3] MIN Jun-jie;GAO Cao;CHANG Zhi-kun;ZHANG Fang-min;HUANG Jin(State Power Environmental Protection Research Institute Company Limited, Nanjing 210031, China;Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Cangzhou 061000, China;College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]国电环境保护研究院有限公司,江苏南京210031 [2]河北省沧州市气象局,河北沧州061000 [3]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2019年第7期104-109,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金课题(JKLAM1604)

摘　　要：利用江苏省52个气象站1961~2012年日降水资料及冬油菜产量逐年数据,计算了春季10个类型的降水指数,并探讨了春季降水异常与产量的数量关系。结果表明:(1)近50年该省大部分地区春季的降雨量、降雨天数、强降水事件场次、连续降水的强度及持续性均呈现出较弱的减少趋势;(2)不同类型降水指数中,春季降水总量被筛选为指示产量波动的关键指标,其对冬油菜产量的负效应最为显著;(3)各站点的产量对春季降水总量的敏感性分析表明南部地区冬油菜种植对春季降水异常更为敏感;(4)近50年江苏大部分地区春季降水量的减少趋势给研究区冬油菜产量带来了一定幅度的增产。Based on the daily precipitation record and yield data of winter oilseed rape at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961~2012,ten types of precipitation indices in spring were calculated,and the quantitative relationship between spring precipitation anomalies and yield were discussed.The results were as follows:(1) in the past 50 years,the precipitation amounts,number of rainy days,number of heavy precipitation events,intensity and persistence of continuous rainfalls in most areas of Jiangsu Province showed a weak decreasing trend during spring;(2) Among the different precipitation indices,the spring total precipitation was selected as the key indicator for yield fluctuation,and its negative effect on winter oilseed rape yield was the most significant;(3) Sensitivity analysis for yield to spring total precipitation showed that oilseed rape in the southern areas was more sensitive to spring precipitation anomalies;(4) The decreasing trend of spring precipitation in most areas of Jiangsu during recent 50 years brought a certain increase for winter oilseed rape yield.

关 键 词：江苏 冬油菜 春季降水异常 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学] S565.4[农业科学—农业基础科学]