城镇职工基本养老保险税预测研究——以浙江省为例  

A predictive study of the basic old-age insurance tax for urban workers:The case of Zhejiang province

作　　者：戴卫东[1] 赵倩[1] DAI Wei-dong;ZHAO Qian(Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学

出　　处：《云南大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期98-107,共10页The Journal of Yunnan University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“多结构转型社会的老年长期照护保障资源整合研究”(项目号:18AGL018)

摘　　要：在当前经济形势下,逐步开征基本养老保险税是实现缓解各省养老保险基金缺口、减轻企业负担以及推进养老保险全国统筹三者协调发展的重要决策。本文以浙江省为例,基于2005-2016年的历史数据,对有关参数进行线性拟合分析并加以合理设定,对税率和养老金替代率分别按高中低和高低进行假设,形成六种方案进行测算。研究发现当养老金替代率为35%,税率为14%(方案五)时,基础养老金收支平衡比较稳定;进一步研究发现浙江省未来30年内养老保险社会统筹基金的平均税率为12.56%,同时基本养老保险税率降低可为正在试点中的长期护理保险制度留出发展空间。进而本文对我国养老保险税制提出相应的配套政策建议。Under the current economic situation,the gradual implementation of tax levy of primary pension insurance is an important decision to alleviate the pension fund gap in all provinces,reduce the burden of enterprises and implement the overall national plan for balanced development.This research is a case study of Zhejiang province.Based on the 2005-2016 data,it makes a linear fit analysis of the relevant parameters on a reasonable basis.The rate of fee (tax) and the replacement rate of pension are assumed from low to high,and six schemes are formed for calculation.It concludes that when the replacement rate of pension is 35% and the tax rate is 14%(Plan 5),the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension is relatively stable.It also concludes that the average tax rate of the endowment insurance of the overall social fund is 12.56% in the next 30 years in Zhejiang province,and the tax rate will help the long-term care insurance which is at its pilot stage.Finally,it proposes some policy suggestions.

关 键 词：城镇职工 基本养老保险 基金平衡 税率 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]