分析师发布现金流预测的动机研究——基于信号传递理论的研究视角  

Research on the Motivation of Analysts to Release Cash Flow Forecasts: Based on Signal Transmission Theory

作　　者：李翠芝[1] 杨小康 周冬华[3] LI Cui-zhi;YANG Xiao-kang;ZHOU Dong-hua(Business College of Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030031,China;Institute for Financial & Accounting Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;School of Accountancy,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大学商务学院,山西太原030031 [2]厦门大学财务管理与会计研究院,福建厦门361005 [3]江西财经大学会计学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《经济问题》2019年第7期104-114,共11页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“分析师额外签发现金流预测报告的动机和经济后果——基于信号传递的视角”(71462012);国家自然科学基金项目“媒体地域属性、媒体报道倾向与上市公司投融资行为”(71462011);国家自然科学基金项目“媒体传闻、公司澄清与经济后果性研究”(71802101)

摘　　要：基于2008-2017年我国卖方分析师发布的研究报告数据,考察分析师内在能力与其额外发布现金流预测的关系。研究结果表明,高能力的分析师更倾向于在发布盈余预测的同时发布现金流预测,目的是向外传递与自身能力有关的信号。因此,对于还未获得良好声誉的非明星分析师,其内在能力越高,额外发布现金流预测的概率越大。研究还表明,对于机构投资者持股比例高的公司,分析师的内在能力与其额外签发现金流预测报告之间的正向关系更为显著。另外,分析师性别、学历、获取私有信息的能力及证券公司与上市公司的利益关联都会影响分析师内在能力与额外发布现金流预测的关系。Based on the research report data released by Chinese seller analysts between 2008 and 2015,we examine the relationship between analysts’intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally release cash-flow forecasts. Our results show that with the goal of delivering signals related to their capabilities,high-quality analysts have greater probability to issue cash-flow forecasts while issuing earning forecasts. Therefore,for non-star analysts who have not yet gained a good reputation,the higher their intrinsic ability,the greater probability of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts. Moreover,Our results show that for the companies with high proportion of institutional investors,the positive relationship between the analyst’s intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts is more significant. Further analyses find that analysts’gender,education,ability to acquire private information,and the interests between securities firms and listed companies are all influence the relationship between analysts’intrinsic capabilities and additional their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecast.

关 键 词：分析师能力 现金流预测 信号传递理论 机构投资者 

分 类 号：F234.9[经济管理—会计学]