人民币汇率目标区的中心汇率及其波动幅度探析  

On the Central Exchange Rate and Its Fluctuation Range in a RMB Exchange Rate Target Zone

作　　者：黄奕 HUANG Yi

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学部

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第4期154-163,F0003,共11页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

摘　　要：在人民币国际化的关键时期,当务之急是对人民币汇价的形成机制进行市场化改革,构建人民币汇率目标区。构建汇率目标区的核心问题是中心汇率如何确定,而通过对名义汇率与劳动力生产率进行Johanson协整性检验,可以证明巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应能够作为估计人民币中心汇率模型的理论基础。进而,考虑政策目标等其他因素,通过建立估计人民币中心汇率的VEC模型,并根据中心汇率测算结果与平均汇率之间的误差,确定人民币对美元隐形汇率目标区的波动幅度为±[3%—5%]较为恰当,即当人民币对美元汇率的波动偏离中心汇率在±3%以内时货币当局无需进行干预,触及±3%时视为预警信号,超过±3%时是否干预视具体情况而定,而超过±5%时则必须进行干预。为此,中国人民银行应当进一步放松对银行结售汇综合头寸的管制,避免被动式的干预;将超额外汇储备中的一小部分用于成立干预外汇市场、管理汇率水平的外汇平准基金,将剩余的超额外汇储备转换成黄金储备。In the crucial period of RMB internationalization, the top priority for the monetary authorities is a market-oriented reform of the mechanism of RMB exchange rate and an establishment of a RMB exchange rate target zone. It is essential for the establishment of such a target zone is to determine the central exchange rate. Through Johanson co-integration test between nominal exchange rate and labor productivity, it is proved that there exists Barrassa-Samuelson effect in China. With this as the theoretical basis, the VEC model of RMB central exchange rate is estimated by taking into account policy objectives and other factors. According to the error between the central exchange rate and the average exchange rate, it can be determined that the fluctuation range of the target zone is ±[3%-5%]: When the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar deviates from the central exchange rate within ±3%, the authorities need not intervene;when it touches ±3%, it is regarded as an early warning signal, and if it exceeds ±3%, the intervention depends on the specific situation;and interventions must be carried out when more than ±5%. To this end, the People's Bank of China should further deregulate general position of SSFE, and avoid to intervene passively;a small portion of the excess foreign exchange reserves should be used to set up an exchange stabilization fund to intervene in the foreign exchange market and manage the exchange rate, and the remaining excess foreign exchange reserves should be converted into gold reserves.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 汇率目标区 中心汇率 巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]