基于社会法治程度和警力处置的群体性事件微分博弈模型  

Differential Game Model of Group Emergencies Considering the Degree of Social Rule of Law and Police Disposal

作　　者：刘德海[1] 谭浩 LIU De-hai;tan Hao(Dongbei University of Finance & Economics Dalian 116025 China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2019年第4期17-22,共6页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271045,71571033,71571035,71503033,71602021)

摘　　要：群体性突发事件属于人民内部矛盾、以经济利益诉求为主导、一定时期内具有较多的民众聚集程度等特点.根据"提高领导干部运用法治思维和法治方式化解矛盾、维护稳定能力"的要求,构建了群体性事件应急处置的微分博弈模型.考虑社会法治程度和警力处置的两种外生变量,力求通过经济补贴实现社会总损失最小的目标.结果表明:在聚集人群处于较低水平时,当地政府对聚集人群的警力部署程度越大,聚集人群越少,政府给予的经济补贴越多,社会法治程度较高会降低聚集人群占当地总人口比重,但提高了经济补贴;单位社会损失增加会增加聚集人群占当地总人口比重,但降低了经济补贴.在聚集人群处于较高水平时,聚集人群随着当地政府警力部署程度的增加而增加,经济补贴随着政府警力部署程度的增加而减少,社会法治程度较高会增加聚集人群占当地总人口比重,但降低了经济补贴;单位社会损失增加会降低聚集人群占当地总人口比重,但增加了经济补贴.Group emergencies belong to the internal contradictions of the people. They have the characteristics of being dominated by economic interests and having more people’s concentration in a certain period of time. According to the requirements of “leading cadres should apply legal thinking and method to resolve contradictions”, the paper constructs a differential game model for emergency response of mass incidents. Considering the two exogenous variables of the degree of social rule of law and the handling of police force, we strive to achieve the goal of minimizing total social loss through financial compensation. The results show that when the aggregated population is at a low level, the local government has more police deployment to the crowds, and the fewer the crowds, the more financial compensation the government gives;the higher the degree of social rule of law will reduce the aggregate population to the local population but increase the financial compensation;the increase in unit social losses will increase the proportion of the aggregate population to the total local population, but reduce the financial compensation. When the crowds are at a high level, the aggregated population increases with the increase of the local government’s police force deployment, and the financial compensation decrease with the increase of the government’s police force deployment;the higher degree of social rule of law will increase the proportion of the aggregated population to the local total population and reduce the financial compensation;the increase in unit social losses will reduce the proportion of the aggregated population to the total local population, but increase the financial compensation.

关 键 词：群体性突发事件 最优控制理论 微分博弈 经济补贴 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]