基于VAR模型的河南省技术进步对就业增长影响研究  

Research on the Influence of Henan Province’s Technological Progress on Employment Growth Based on VAR Model

作　　者：李中建[1] 杨晓扬 LI Zhongjian;YANG Xiaoyang(School of Commerce,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期42-47,共6页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：河南省教育科学规划重大招标课题([2017]-JKGHZDZB-02)

摘　　要：伴随着人工智能、云计算等新一代信息技术的飞速发展,新一轮的技术变革使机器对劳动力的替代率不断上升。伴随着产业结构升级、劳动力成本上升与劳动适龄人口数的减少,技术进步对就业的影响再次成为人们关注的热点问题。利用河南省1979—2016年的相关数据测算出技术进步率与就业增长率,通过构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,探究技术进步对就业的动态效应。研究表明,技术进步对河南省的就业总量在短期内(1~2年)有明显的促进作用,随后出现了短暂的负面影响,长期技术进步对就业始终具有微弱的促进作用。因此,应通过大力实施创新驱动战略、加快高新技术产业发展等方式促进技术进步,从而带动就业增长。With the rapid development of new generation information technology such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing,a new turn of technological changes has led to an increase in the replacement rate of labor for labor,accompanied by an increase in industrial structure,an increase in labor costs,and a decrease in the number of working-age people. The impact of technological advances on employment has once again become a hot issue of concern. Using the relevant data from 1978-2016 in Henan Province to measure the technological progress rate and employment growth rate,the vector autoregressive (VAR) model was constructed to explore the dynamic effects of technological progress on employment. Studies have shown that technological advancement has a significant role in promoting the total employment in Henan Province in the short term (1-2 years),followed by a short-term negative impact. Long-term technological progress has always played a weak role in promoting employment. Therefore,it is necessary to promote technological progress by vigorously implementing innovation-driven strategies and accelerating the development of high-tech industries,thereby driving employment growth.

关 键 词：技术进步 全要素生产率增长率 就业增长率 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：G641[文化科学—高等教育学]