危机后全球失衡的进展与国际协调思路  

Global Rebalancing and International Coordination in the Post-Crisis Era

作　　者：杨盼盼[1] 常殊昱 熊爱宗[1] Yang Panpan;Chang Shuyu;Xiong Aizong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2019年第4期9-25,M0003,共18页International Economic Review

基　　金：财政部与世经政所G20项目;发改委发展规划项目“‘十四五’时期国际收支情况、影响及应对举措研究”;自科青年基金(71503263)的资助

摘　　要：本文首先梳理了危机后全球失衡的新进展,全球失衡整体大幅缓解,中国为危机后全球经济再平衡做出了重要贡献,主要发达失衡国的调整则相对有限。然而,在全球失衡渐趋缓和的同时,失衡的政策协调压力却在上升,全球失衡再度成为2019 年G20 的核心议题。本文指出,当下政策讨论中采取的经常账户合意值的外部失衡评议方法存在诸多问题,针对各国的失衡评估报告也存在不一致。继而,全球失衡的政策协调方式应有所转变,需统合流量失衡和存量失衡的相互作用机制,促进各国有序协调,防范因外部失衡无序下降或波动以及因外部失衡过度调整带来的全球经济、贸易和金融风险。This article reviews the latest progress in easing global imbalances in the post-crisis era. There has been significant decline in aggregated imbalance. China has made significant contribution to global rebalancing while the developed countries have failed to substantially resolve their imbalance problems. As the global imbalance has moderated, however, the coordination pressure has intensified. Global imbalance has once again come to the center stage at this year’s G20 meeting. This article pointed out several problems regarding the External Balance Approach (EBA), which estimates a country’s Current Account Norm, and the external reports on concerned countries have showed some inconsistencies. To improve the global imbalance policy coordination, it is necessary to incorporate the management of stock and flow imbalance, promote orderly coordination among different countries, and avoid posing risks to global economic growth, trade and finance.

关 键 词：全球失衡 外部失衡评估法 流量失衡 存量失衡 政策协调 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]