2009-2015年中国耕地资源利用时空格局变化研究——基于粮食安全与生态安全双重视角  

A Study on Spatio-temporal Changes in Patterns of China’s Cultivated Land Use from 2009 to 2015——Insights from Food Safety and Ecological Security

作　　者：陈先鹏 方恺[1] 吴次芳[1,2] 王田雨 龙吟 Chen Xianpeng;Fang Kai;Wu Cifang;Wang Tianyu;Long Yin(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310058,China;Land Academy for National Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310058, China;Graduate School of Frontier Sciences,The University of Tokyo,Kashiwa 277-8563,Japan)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学土地与国家发展研究院,浙江杭州310058 [3]日本东京大学新领域创成科学研究科,千叶柏市277-8563

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2019年第3期291-296,306,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“泛第三极环境变化与绿色丝绸之路建设”课题(XDA20040400)

摘　　要：[目的]研究2009—2015年中国及其31个省(不含港澳台地区)耕地资源利用的时空格局变化,为优化和完善中国耕地保护政策,促进区域可持续发展提供科学参考。[方法]基于粮食安全和生态安全双重视角,利用粮食供需平衡法和生态足迹法,分析耕地资源的供需盈亏和生态盈亏,并结合耕地保护红线和行星边界框架,探讨中国耕地资源利用的安全区间。[结果]从粮食供需盈亏来看,中国耕地利用处于供需不平衡状态,省际差异明显,盈余省份主要分布在中部和东北地区,东南沿海省份赤字系数较高;从生态足迹盈亏来看,中国耕地利用总体处于生态赤字状态,赤字系数较高的省份主要位于中东部人口集聚和经济发达地区及西北地区,少数盈余省份分布在南部和西南地区;行星边界框架提出的耕地转化率不超过15%,具有一定合理性。结合耕地保护红线讨论中国耕地规模的安全区间,认为1.20×10^8~1.44×10^8hm^2是相对合理的设定。[结论]今后在完善区域差别化耕地保护政策的过程中,应当关注耕地规模区间的设定和变动,遵循粮食安全与生态安全协调并举的可持续发展原则。[Objective] This paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in the patterns of cultivated land use in China and its 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) from 2009 to 2015 so as to provide a scientific reference for promoting China’s cultivated land protection policy and regional sustainable development.[Methods] The methods of grain supply-demand balance and ecological footprint analysis were employed to account for the cultivated land budget based on food safety and ecological security. In addition,the safe operating space for cultivated land utilization in China was discussed based on the China’s ecological redline policy and the planetary boundaries framework.[Results] The budget of supply and demand of China ’s cultivated land was generally in disequilibrium,with surplus in central and northeast of China and deficit in southeast of China. From the perspective of ecological footprint,the cultivated land use in China was in deficit. The provinces with high deficit coefficient were mainly located in the central and eastern regions of densely populated and economically developed provinces,while a few surplus provinces were mainly distributed in south and southwest of China. Following the planetary boundaries framework arguing that the maximum permissible percentage of global land cover converted to cropland was estimated at 15%,together with China’s redline of cultivated land protection,the safe operating space for cultivated land use in China could be ranging from 1.20×10^8 hm 2 to 1.44×10^8 hm^2.[Conclusion] More attentions need to be paid on the determination and variation of safe range for cultivated land at multiple scales. The food safety and ecological security could assist decision makers in developing regional-specific policies for sustainable use of cultivated land.

关 键 词：粮食安全 生态安全 粮食供需平衡 生态足迹 行星边界 耕地利用 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]