长江朝涪段航道建设工程经济效益分析研究  

Analysis and Study on Economic Benefitof Waterway Construction Project in Chaotianmen-Fuling Section of the Yangtze River

作　　者：龙浩 李文杰[2] 杨胜发[2] 张璠 LONG Hao;LI Wenjie;YANG Shengfa;ZHANG Fan(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Water Resources and Waterway Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;National Engineering Research Center for Inland Waterway Regulation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Chongqing Shipping Engineering Survey and Design Institute of the Yangtze River,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学水利水运工程教育部重点实验室,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心,重庆400074 [3]长江重庆航运工程勘察设计院,重庆401147

出　　处：《人民珠江》2019年第7期110-114,127,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC04022103);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS19245)

摘　　要：统计分析长江朝天门至涪陵段水运量的发展变化趋势,利用了回归分析、弹性系数和指数平滑等方法对未来水运量进行组合预测。基于预测结果采用“有-无”对比法对正处论证阶段的朝天门至涪陵段4.5m水深航道建设工程经济效益进行识别测算。识别发现,工程的经济效益主要体现在节约社会运输成本和环境处置成本。初步测算结果表明,截至2040年,累计产生经济效益达22.02亿元,工程具备较强经济合理性,可供决策参考。The combined forecasting of waterway transport capacity in the future is conducted through analyzing the development trend of waterway transport capacity in Chaotianmen-Fuling sections of the Yangtze River, and using the methods of regression analysis, elastic coefficient and exponential smoothing. Based on the prediction results, the economic benefits of the 4.5 m waterway construction project in Chaotianmen-Fuling section are identified and calculated by the with and without methods, and it found that the economic benefits of the project are mainly realized in saving social transportation costs and environmental disposal costs. The preliminary calculation results show that as of 2040, the total economic benefits will be 2.202 billion yuan. Therefore, the project has strong economic rationality, which can be used as a reference for decision-making.

关 键 词：4.5m水深航道建设工程 效益分析 “有-无”对比法 长江朝涪段 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]