我国一线城市房地产市场泡沫的测度研究——基于我国19个一线城市的面板数据  

Research on the Bubble Measurement of Real Estate Market in China’s First-tier Cities——Based on Panel Data of 19 First-tier Cities in China

作　　者：梁秋霞[1] 汪楠 王馨平 Liang Qiuxia;Wang Nan;Wang Xinping

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学工商学院

出　　处：《滁州学院学报》2019年第3期17-21,共5页Journal of Chuzhou University

基　　金：安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyqZD2016406);安徽省社科联“三项课题”

摘　　要：文章选取2018年第一财经周刊评选的15个新一线城市,加上北京、上海、广州、深圳共19个城市2005年至2016年的面板数据,建立固定效应变系数模型对房地产价格泡沫进行测度和分析。结果表明,十九个一线城市房地产价格出现不同程度的泡沫,2006年、2007年间波动最大,整体呈减小趋势。控制房价泡沫政府可以建立抑制房价上涨的长效机制,并提高房地产信息的对称性。In this paper, 15 new first-tier cities selected by China business news in 2018 were selected, and panel data of 19 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 2005 to 2016 were added. A fixed effect variable coefficient model was established to measure and analyze the real estate price bubble. The results show that the real estate prices in 19 first-tier cities show different degrees of bubbles, with the biggest fluctuations in 2006 and 2007, and the overall trend of decrease. To control the housing bubble, the government can establish a long-term mechanism to curb the rise of housing prices and improve the symmetry of real estate information.

关 键 词：房价泡沫 一线城市 面板数据 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]