中国在世界经济中相对地位的演变(公元1000—2017年)——对麦迪逊估算的修正  

The Evolution of China’s Share in the Global Economy: 1000—2017 AD

作　　者：金星晔 管汉晖[2] 李稻葵 BROADBERRY Stephen JIN Xingye;GUAN Hanhui;LI Daokui;BROADBERRY Stephen(School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics, Peking University;School of Social Sciences,School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University;Nuffield College, Oxford University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,100081 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871 [3]清华大学社会科学学院、清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [4]牛津大学纳菲尔德学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第7期14-29,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“我国历史上的GDP及其结构研究(980—1840)”(批准号:15ZDB130)的阶段性成果;国家社会科学基金一般项目(批准号:13BJL016);国家自然科学基金面上项目(批准号:70973003)的资助

摘　　要：一个文明在世界上影响力的重要测度是其经济活动在世界经济中的相对地位,因而深刻认识中华文明的历史影响力以及1978年以来改革开放对中华民族复兴的意义,有必要对中国经济在世界经济中相对地位的演变进行长时段研究。已有研究大多引用麦迪逊估算,其准确性值得商榷。本文应用国际学术界前沿的历史国民收入核算方法得到的最新世界各国GDP数据,结合中国原始历史记载,大幅校准了基于麦迪逊人均GDP猜估值得到的中国在世界经济中的相对地位,重新认识了中国在世界经济中相对地位的演变。研究发现:第一,公元1000—1978年,中国GDP在世界总GDP中的比重先升后降,峰值为1600年的34.6%,而不是麦迪逊估算的1600年和1820年两次高峰,1600年34.6%的峰值高于麦迪逊32.9%的最高峰估计。西方国家工业革命后,中国GDP在世界总GDP中的比重断崖式下降,1952年和1978年分别仅占5.2%和4.9%。第二,改革开放后,中国GDP占世界GDP的比重迅速恢复,2017年达到18.2%。第三,以人均GDP衡量,中国从18世纪上半期开始,生活水平开始落后于主要欧洲国家,中西大分流已经出现,而非加州学派认为的工业革命后。本文研究表明,1978年改革开放开启的是自公元1600以来中国经济的首次历史性复兴。An important measure of the significance of a civilization in the world is its share of the global economy. To understand the role of Chinese civilization in world history and the significance of China's rapid economic growth in the era of reform and opening up, it is necessary to estimate as accurately as possible the evolution of the share of China in the global economy. This paper provides a systematic re-assessment of China's share of world GDP from 1000 to 2017. Until now, the literature has been dominated by Angus Maddison, whose work has been widely cited in both the academic community and popular media. Maddison estimated that China's share of world GDP peaked twice around 1600 and 1820, with latter being the highest at 32.9%. However, Maddison s medieval and early modern estimates were based on a number of assumptions about Chinese and world per-capita GDP throughout history. Such assumptions are critical to his conclusion and need to be further studied. In this paper, we take a different approach from Maddison. We draw data from Broadberry et al.(2018), who apply historical national accounting methods to estimate GDP for China during the Northern Song Dynasty (980-1125), Ming Dynasty (1402-1626), and Qing Dynasty (1685-1840) using data collected from first-hand historical sources and then calculate the output of the Chinese economy during these periods. These GDP estimates are combined with population data to track trends in per-capita GDP. China's per-capita GDP fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. This approach takes advantage of the relatively ample historical data from these Chinese dynasties, and directly estimates aggregate output in a much more reliable way than Maddison, who assumed a certain level of per-capita GDP for each country throughout history. As a result of recent advances in historical national accounting, we rely upon fresh estimates of per-capita GDP in several European countries, including the Unit

关 键 词：中国与世界经济比较 历史GDP 长期经济发展 大分流 

分 类 号：F129[经济管理—世界经济]