人工智能、老龄化与经济增长  

Artificial Intelligence, Aging and Economic Growth

作　　者：陈彦斌[1] 林晨[2] 陈小亮[3] CHEN Yanbin;LIN Chen;CHEN Xiaoliang(School of Economics, Renmin University of China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China;Institute of Economics, CASS)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,100872 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,100872 [3]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第7期47-63,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(15XNI006);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(18JD790015);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71850003);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603274)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：历史和国际经验表明,长期中老龄化会给经济增长带来较为严重的冲击,由于中国的老龄化程度正在不断提高,因此很有必要探寻应对老龄化的有效之策。本文通过构建含有人工智能和老龄化的动态一般均衡模型,研究了人工智能是否能够有效应对老龄化对经济增长的不利影响。研究结果表明,人工智能主要通过三条机制应对老龄化的冲击,进而促进经济增长:一是提高生产活动的智能化和自动化程度从而减少生产活动所需的劳动力,二是提高资本回报率从而促进资本积累,三是提高全要素生产率。数值模拟结果进一步显示,人工智能可以较好地应对老龄化对经济增长的不利影响,而且其效果明显优于延迟退休政策。有鉴于此,本文认为中国可以通过发展人工智能来应对老龄化对经济增长的冲击。不过,要想实现这一目标并非易事,政府部门一方面需要为人工智能提供良好的发展环境;另一方面需要事先防范人工智能可能引发的失业和收入分配失衡等问题,确保经济与社会的平稳运行。Historical and international evidence indicates that although the short-term impact of aging on the economic growth of a country or region is insignificant, the long-run impact cannot be ignored. The aging of China's population is accelerating. If no effective measures are taken, the impact of aging on China's economic growth may be more severe than in other countries. Current policy suggestions to address the impacts of aging include postponing the retirement age, adjusting the birth policy, and accelerating the reform of the household registration system. The essence of these measures is to expand the labor force from the supply side. However, in reality, it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so. Starting from the demand side, it may be possible to find an effective long-term solution. The development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to replace labor with intelligent equipment, thereby reducing labor demand to cope with the impact of aging. Based on this background, this paper focuses on whether AI can effectively cope with the negative effects of aging on China's economic growth. In recent years, there has been much academic research on AI, including studies of its impact on economic growth, productivity, technological innovation, employment, income distribution and inequality, market structure, and industrial organization. However, few studies have been devoted to whether AI can cope with the negative effects of aging on economic growth. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of AI adaptation and population aging, this paper finds that AI can deal with the impact of aging on economic growth through the following three mechanisms. First, AI increases the degree of automation, reduces the dependence of production activities on labor, and thus offsets the negative impact of aging on economic growth. Second, AI can increase the rate of return on capital, and thus increase the savings rate and investment rate. Therefore, AI buffers the impact of the reduction of labor s

关 键 词：人工智能 老龄化 经济增长 延迟退休政策 动态一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F124[社会学—人口学] C924.2